Sunderland

Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 16:00

6d 16h to kick-off

Match preview · Premier League

Sunderland 14th in Premier League Home 1.59 projected goals

Brighton & Hove Albion 3rd in Premier League Away 1.46 projected goals

Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00

What the model expects

expected goals

1.59 1.46

Sunderland Brighton & Hove Albion

Sunderland: 39%
Draw: 28%
Brighton & Hove Albion: 33%

The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
	Sunderland	Draw	Brighton & Hove Albion
Fair odds	2.57	3.55	3.04

Total goals: 3.05
Over 2.5 goals: 61%
Both teams to score: 67%

Data coverage · full

Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Model vs market

The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.

Sunderland

Model

39.0%

Market, margin removed

32.6%

Probability gap

+6.4 pp

Edge

+12.1%

Fair odds

2.57

Market odds

2.88 Bet365

Price at which a 5% edge begins

2.69

Bookmaker margin

6.7%
Draw

Model

28.1%

Market, margin removed

27.6%

Probability gap

+0.6 pp

Edge

−4.4%

Fair odds

3.55

Market odds

3.40 Bet365

Price at which a 5% edge begins

3.73

Bookmaker margin

6.7%
Brighton & Hove Albion

Model

32.9%

Market, margin removed

39.9%

Probability gap

−7.0 pp

Edge

−22.7%

Fair odds

3.04

Market odds

2.35 Bet365

Price at which a 5% edge begins

3.19

Bookmaker margin

6.7%

Outcomes with value

6 of 17 rated

Goals by team Great value

Sunderland 2+ goals

2.50 Bet365 · fair 2.05 +21.8%

model 48.7% · book 37.5% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.

Match result Worth playing

Sunderland to win

2.88 Bet365 · fair 2.57 +12.1%

model 39.0% · book 32.6% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.

Goals by team Worth playing

Sunderland to score

1.30 Bet365 · fair 1.22 +6.7%

model 82.1% · book 72.3% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.

Both teams to score Worth playing

Both teams to score

1.67 Bet365 · fair 1.50 +11.2%

model 66.7% · book 55.7% (no margin)

No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).

Goals Worth playing

Over 2.5 goals

1.80 Bet365 · fair 1.65 +9.2%

model 60.7% · book 52.6% (no margin)

No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).

Goals Worth playing

Over 1.5 goals

1.25 Bet365 · fair 1.18 +5.8%

model 84.6% · book 76.2% (no margin)

No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).

No value Brighton & Hove Albion to score -3.0% Draw -4.4% Brighton & Hove Albion at most 1 goal -6.8% Brighton & Hove Albion 2+ goals -7.4% Brighton & Hove Albion not to score -17.5% Under 2.5 goals -21.3% Brighton & Hove Albion to win -22.7% Sunderland at most 1 goal -23.1% Both teams not to score -30.0% Under 1.5 goals -38.5% Sunderland not to score -39.1%

Best opportunity

Sunderland 2+ goals

odds · Bet365 2.50 value +21.8%

Model 48.7% vs. bookmaker 37.5%, margin removed.

Markets 6 / 17

Match result

Sunderland to win model 39.0% · book 32.6% (no margin) +12.1% 2.88 fair 2.57

Worth playing

Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.

Goals

Over 2.5 goals model 60.7% · book 52.6% (no margin) +9.2% 1.80 fair 1.65

Worth playing

No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).

Over 1.5 goals model 84.6% · book 76.2% (no margin) +5.8% 1.25 fair 1.18

Worth playing

No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).

Both teams to score

Both teams to score model 66.7% · book 55.7% (no margin) +11.2% 1.67 fair 1.50

Worth playing

No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).

Goals by team

Sunderland 2+ goals model 48.7% · book 37.5% (no margin) +21.8% 2.50 fair 2.05

Great value

Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.

Sunderland to score model 82.1% · book 72.3% (no margin) +6.7% 1.30 fair 1.22

Worth playing

Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.

Show every rated outcome

Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →

The model's case

Why the model leans Sunderland

39% Sunderland to win

Attack: 8th vs 12th; Sunderland attack v Brighton & Hove Albion defence
Defence: 6th vs 3rd; Sunderland defence v Brighton & Hove Albion attack
Recent xG form: +0.29 vs +0.33; xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals: 1.59 – 1.46; Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion

How the model arrived here →

Squad news

From Fantasy Premier League

9 listed

Anthony Patterson 0% chance

Goalkeeper · Has joined Wrexham permanently
Arthur Masuaku 0% chance

Defender · Has joined Konyaspor permanently
Jenson Seelt 0% chance

Defender · Has joined Swansea City on loan for the rest of the season
Leo Fuhr Hjelde 0% chance

Defender · Has joined KV Mechelen on loan for the rest of the season
Simon Adingra 0% chance

Midfielder · Has joined Ajax on loan for the rest of the season
Habib Diarra 0% chance

Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
Romaine Mundle 0% chance

Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
Brian Brobbey 75% chance

Forward · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Daniel Ballard 75% chance

Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing

Brighton & Hove Albion

15 listed

Jack Hinshelwood 0% chance

Midfielder · Ankle injury - Expected back 10 Oct
Mats Wieffer 0% chance

Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
Harry Howell 0% chance

Midfielder · Has joined Leicester City on loan for the rest of the season
Femi Azeez 0% chance

Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
Yankuba Minteh 0% chance

Midfielder · Leg injury - Expected back 28 Nov
Stefanos Tzimas 0% chance

Forward · Knee injury - Unknown return date
Evan Ferguson 0% chance

Forward · Ankle injury - Expected back 10 Oct
Facundo Buonanotte 0% chance

Midfielder · Has joined Elche on loan for the rest of the season
Igor Julio 0% chance

Defender · Has joined Burnley permanently
Tom Watson 0% chance

Midfielder · Has joined Leicester City on loan for the rest of the season
Zadok Yohanna 0% chance

Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Expected back 10 Oct
Amario Cozier-Duberry 0% chance

Midfielder · Has joined Middlesbrough on loan for the rest of the season
Mitoma Kaoru 0% chance

Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
Lewis Dunk 75% chance

Defender · Neck injury - 75% chance of playing
Pascal Struijk 75% chance

Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing

The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Sunderland and Brighton & Hove Albion compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Sunderland	Brighton & Hove Albion
xG / match	1.90 · 5th	(better) 2.31 · 1st
xGA / match	1.75 · 14th	(better) 1.74 · 13th
xGD / match	+0.15 · 9th	(better) +0.57 · 4th
xPts / match	1.47 · 9th	(better) 1.62 · 6th
Last 6 xGD / match	+0.29	(better) +0.33

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Sunderland and Brighton & Hove Albion compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Sunderland	Brighton & Hove Albion
xG / match	1.90 · 5th	(better) 2.31 · 1st
npxG / match	1.77	(better) 2.13
Shots / match	13.2 · 12th	(better) 19.0 · 2nd
npxG / shot	(better) 0.13 · 2nd	0.11 · 8th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Sunderland and Brighton & Hove Albion compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Sunderland	Brighton & Hove Albion
xGA / match	1.75 · 14th	(better) 1.74 · 13th
Shots faced / match	12.0 · 8th	(better) 11.6 · joint 5th
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.13 · 16th	0.16 · 20th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Sunderland and Brighton & Hove Albion compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Sunderland	Brighton & Hove Albion
Last 6 xG / match	1.89	(better) 2.06
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 1.60	1.73
Last 6 xGD / match	+0.29	(better) +0.33

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.

Sunderland clean sheet: 21%
Sunderland 2+ goals: 49%
Under 2.5 goals: 39%
Both teams to score: no: 33%

Most likely scorelines

1:1: 13.3%
2:1: 9.9%
1:2: 9.1%

Value calculator

Check your bookmaker's price

The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.

How value is calculated

Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Open the calculator

Match result

Sunderland to win

39.0% 2.57 —

Draw

28.1% 3.55 —

Brighton & Hove Albion to win

32.9% 3.04 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

84.6% 1.18 —

Under 1.5 goals

15.4% 6.51 —

Over 2.5 goals

60.7% 1.65 —

Under 2.5 goals

39.3% 2.54 —

Both teams to score

66.7% 1.50 —

Both teams not to score

33.3% 3.00 —

Team goals — Sunderland

Sunderland to score

82.1% 1.22 —

Sunderland not to score

17.9% 5.58 —

Sunderland 2+ goals

48.7% 2.05 —

Sunderland at most 1 goal

51.3% 1.95 —

Team goals — Brighton & Hove Albion

Brighton & Hove Albion to score

79.4% 1.26 —

Brighton & Hove Albion not to score

20.6% 4.85 —

Brighton & Hove Albion 2+ goals

44.1% 2.27 —

Brighton & Hove Albion at most 1 goal

55.9% 1.79 —

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Sunderland sample: 20 matches
Brighton & Hove Albion sample: 20 matches
Home xG sample · Sunderland: 2 matches
Away xG sample · Brighton & Hove Albion: 2 matches
Computed: Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Odds updated: 1 minute ago

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sunderland

1.89 xG created 1.60 xGA

W 1.84 created, 0.89 conceded against Chelsea
L 0.66 created, 1.80 conceded against Ipswich Town
W 1.75 created, 1.02 conceded against Fulham
D 1.71 created, 1.21 conceded against Brentford
L 1.80 created, 1.88 conceded against Arsenal
L 3.57 created, 2.82 conceded against Manchester City

Brighton & Hove Albion

2.06 xG created 1.73 xGA

L 0.79 created, 1.66 conceded against Manchester United
W 3.77 created, 0.29 conceded against Aston Villa
L 1.49 created, 2.97 conceded against Chelsea
D 2.19 created, 2.49 conceded against Leeds United
W 2.81 created, 1.33 conceded against Coventry City
W 1.31 created, 1.63 conceded against Arsenal

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

What the model expects

Model vs market

Sunderland

Draw

Brighton & Hove Albion

Outcomes with value

Why the model leans Sunderland

Squad news

Sunderland

Brighton & Hove Albion

Team comparison

Sunderland attack → Brighton & Hove Albion defence

Brighton & Hove Albion attack → Sunderland defence

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

Most likely scorelines

Check your bookmaker's price

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Sunderland

Team goals — Brighton & Hove Albion

Model details