Manchester City 5:3 Sunderland: xG & match report · Premier League

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 15:00

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Manchester City Home 2.82 xG · 16 shots

Sunderland Away 3.57 xG · 17 shots

53 The result went against the chances

Manchester City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. They won 5–3. The biggest difference was Sunderland's attack: 3.57 xG against 0.94 projected (+2.63). Manchester City produced 2.82 xG against 1.71 projected (+1.11).

Goals

9' Enzo Fernández Manchester City · 0.04 xG chance 1–0
12' Brian Brobbey Sunderland · 0.61 xG chance 1–1
29' Rayan Cherki Manchester City · 0.08 xG chance 2–1
33' Brian Brobbey Sunderland · 0.89 xG chance 2–2
43' Antoine Semenyo Manchester City · 0.10 xG chance 3–2
57' Antoine Semenyo Manchester City · 0.05 xG chance 4–2
59' Brian Brobbey Sunderland · 1.00 xG chance 4–3
81' Erling Haaland Manchester City · 0.70 xG chance 5–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Manchester City: 55% What happened
Draw: 28%
Sunderland: 18%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Manchester City 1.71 2.82 +1.11

Sunderland 0.94 3.57 +2.63

Sunderland produced 2.63 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Manchester City Sunderland

Shots: 16; 17
On target: 6; 7
Inside the box: 12; 14
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.25
Open play xG: 2.27; 3.28
Set-piece xG: 0.44; 0.99
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.72 for Manchester City and 4.34 for Sunderland.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

33 shots · 6.98 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Manchester City
Sunderland
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Manchester City

1.75 xG created 1.28 xGA

D 1.48 created, 2.25 conceded against Bournemouth
L 1.34 created, 1.77 conceded against Aston Villa
W 2.25 created, 0.65 conceded against Bournemouth
W 2.21 created, 0.66 conceded against Crystal Palace
W 2.12 created, 1.37 conceded against Coventry City
W 1.10 created, 1.00 conceded against Manchester United

Sunderland

1.42 xG created 1.31 xGA

W 0.76 created, 1.04 conceded against Everton
W 1.84 created, 0.89 conceded against Chelsea
L 0.66 created, 1.80 conceded against Ipswich Town
W 1.75 created, 1.02 conceded against Fulham
D 1.71 created, 1.21 conceded against Brentford
L 1.80 created, 1.88 conceded against Arsenal

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Manchester City: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged3 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Manchester City against Sunderland before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Sunderland to win	9.50	+66.4%	Lost
Draw	5.75	+59.2%	Lost
Manchester City not to score	10.00	+55.0%	Lost
Manchester City at most 1 goal	3.00	+41.0%	Lost
Sunderland 2+ goals	5.50	+31.9%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.38	+16.5%	Lost
Sunderland to score	1.80	+15.4%	Won
Both teams to score	1.95	+8.8%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+7.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Manchester City	54.8%	73.6%	−18.8 pp	1.82
Draw	27.7%	16.5%	+11.2 pp	3.61
Sunderland	17.5%	10.0%	+7.6 pp	5.71

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Manchester City to score	84.5%	90.4%	−5.9 pp	1.18
Manchester City not to score	15.5%	9.6%	+5.9 pp	6.45
Sunderland to score	64.1%	51.5%	+12.6 pp	1.56
Sunderland not to score	35.9%	48.5%	−12.6 pp	2.78
Both teams to score	55.8%	48.0%	+7.8 pp	1.79
Both teams not to score	44.2%	52.0%	−7.8 pp	2.26
Manchester City 2+ goals	53.0%	68.7%	−15.7 pp	1.89
Manchester City at most 1 goal	47.0%	31.3%	+15.7 pp	2.13
Sunderland 2+ goals	24.0%	17.2%	+6.8 pp	4.17
Sunderland at most 1 goal	76.0%	82.8%	−6.8 pp	1.32
Over 1.5 goals	78.5%	81.1%	−2.5 pp	1.27
Under 1.5 goals	21.5%	18.9%	+2.5 pp	4.66
Over 2.5 goals	50.9%	60.2%	−9.3 pp	1.96
Under 2.5 goals	49.1%	39.8%	+9.3 pp	2.04

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Manchester City sample: 20 matches
Sunderland sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.