Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 17:30
Full timeManchester United 0:1 Manchester City
Manchester United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. Manchester City won 1–0. The biggest difference was Manchester United's attack: 1.00 xG against 1.60 projected (−0.60). Manchester City produced 1.10 xG against 1.44 projected (−0.34).
Goals
- 60' Erling Haaland Manchester City · 0.46 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Manchester United
- 40%
- Draw
- 28%
- Manchester City
- 32% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Manchester United produced 0.60 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 6
- On target
- 3
- 2
- Inside the box
- 6
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.17
- Open play xG
- 0.78
- 0.64
- Set-piece xG
- 0.21
- 0.35
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.95 for Manchester United and 0.99 for Manchester City.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
22 shots · 1.98 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Manchester United
- Manchester City
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.32 xG created 1.37 xGA
- D 0.62 created, 1.25 conceded against Sunderland
- W 4.57 created, 1.88 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- W 1.66 created, 0.79 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- L 1.81 created, 1.26 conceded against Hull City
- W 4.56 created, 2.01 conceded against Ipswich Town
- D 0.69 created, 1.01 conceded against Everton
1.84 xG created 1.24 xGA
- W 1.66 created, 0.73 conceded against Crystal Palace
- D 1.48 created, 2.25 conceded against Bournemouth
- L 1.34 created, 1.77 conceded against Aston Villa
- W 2.25 created, 0.65 conceded against Bournemouth
- W 2.21 created, 0.66 conceded against Crystal Palace
- W 2.12 created, 1.37 conceded against Coventry City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to win | 3.10 | +22.7% | Lost |
| Manchester City not to score | 5.50 | +16.0% | Lost |
| Manchester City at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +13.2% | Won |
| Draw | 3.75 | +5.6% | Lost |
| Manchester United 2+ goals | 2.10 | +2.8% | Lost |
| Manchester United to score | 1.22 | +0.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 39.6% | 30.9% | +8.7 pp | 2.53 |
| Draw | 28.2% | 25.5% | +2.6 pp | 3.55 |
| Manchester City | 32.3% | 43.5% | −11.3 pp | 3.10 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to score | 82.2% | 76.6% | +5.6 pp | 1.22 |
| Manchester United not to score | 17.8% | 23.4% | −5.6 pp | 5.62 |
| Manchester City to score | 78.9% | 82.8% | −3.9 pp | 1.27 |
| Manchester City not to score | 21.1% | 17.2% | +3.9 pp | 4.74 |
| Both teams to score | 66.4% | 64.5% | +1.9 pp | 1.51 |
| Both teams not to score | 33.6% | 35.5% | −1.9 pp | 2.98 |
| Manchester United 2+ goals | 48.9% | 44.3% | +4.7 pp | 2.04 |
| Manchester United at most 1 goal | 51.1% | 55.7% | −4.7 pp | 1.96 |
| Manchester City 2+ goals | 43.4% | 53.7% | −10.3 pp | 2.31 |
| Manchester City at most 1 goal | 56.6% | 46.3% | +10.3 pp | 1.77 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | 81.1% | +3.4 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.6% | 18.9% | −3.4 pp | 6.43 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | 62.0% | −1.6 pp | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.7% | 38.0% | +1.6 pp | 2.52 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Manchester United sample
- 20 matches
- Manchester City sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.