Chelsea 2:1 Liverpool: xG & match report · Premier League

Saturday, 04/10/2025 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Chelsea Home 1.00 xG · 12 shots

Liverpool Away 1.95 xG · 12 shots

21 The result went against the chances

Goals

14' Moisés Caicedo Chelsea · 0.04 xG chance 1–0
63' Cody Gakpo Liverpool · 0.53 xG chance 1–1
90' Estêvão Chelsea · 0.39 xG chance 2–1

The shots behind it

Chelsea Liverpool

Shots: 12; 12
On target: 6; 2
Inside the box: 6; 8
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.16
Open play xG: 0.91; 1.93
Set-piece xG: 0.09; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.95 for Liverpool.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 2.93 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Chelsea
Liverpool
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Chelsea

1.70 xG created 1.33 xGA

D 1.60 created, 0.66 conceded against Crystal Palace
W 2.74 created, 0.73 conceded against West Ham United
W 2.35 created, 1.02 conceded against Fulham
D 1.25 created, 1.43 conceded against Brentford
L 0.43 created, 1.84 conceded against Manchester United
L 1.81 created, 2.28 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion

Liverpool

1.52 xG created 1.15 xGA

W 2.21 created, 1.70 conceded against Bournemouth
W 0.69 created, 0.98 conceded against Newcastle United
W 0.52 created, 0.49 conceded against Arsenal
W 2.65 created, 0.13 conceded against Burnley
W 0.90 created, 0.70 conceded against Everton
L 2.14 created, 2.92 conceded against Crystal Palace

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.