Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Coventry City – Nottingham Forest
Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Coventry City
- 36%
- Draw
- 31%
- Nottingham Forest
- 33%
| Coventry City | Draw | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.77 | 3.25 | 3.01 |
- Total goals
- 2.64
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model can't separate them
36% Coventry City to win
- Attack
- 17th vs 7th
- Coventry City attack v Nottingham Forest defence
- Defence
- 17th vs 13th
- Coventry City defence v Nottingham Forest attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.75 vs +0.55
- xGD per match, last 5
- Projected goals
- 1.35 – 1.29
- Coventry City v Nottingham Forest
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Squad news
Coventry City
14 listed-
Oliver Dovin 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Leyton Orient on loan for the rest of the season
-
Aurèle Amenda 0% chance
Defender · Calf injury - Unknown return date
-
Taiwo Awoniyi 0% chance
Forward · Suspended until 19 Oct
-
Kai Andrews 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Liam Kitching 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Sheffield United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Haji Wright 0% chance
Forward · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Luke Woolfenden 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Raphael Borges Rodrigues 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Burton Albion on loan for the rest of the season
-
Jahnoah Markelo 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai permanently
-
Kaine Kesler-Hayden 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
-
Miguel Brau 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Academico de Viseu on loan for the rest of the season
-
Josh Eccles 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Expected back 12 Oct
-
Norman Bassette 0% chance
Forward · Has joined KVC Westerlo on loan for the rest of the season
-
Milan van Ewijk 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Nottingham Forest
7 listed-
Nikola Milenković 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 11 Oct
-
Tyler Bindon 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Charlton Athletic on loan for the rest of the season
-
Omari Hutchinson 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined AC Milan on loan for the rest of the season
-
Zach Abbott 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Southampton on loan for the rest of the season
-
Morato 0% chance
Defender · Has joined West Ham on loan for the rest of the season
-
Nicolò Savona 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Dilane Bakwa 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Lille on loan for the rest of the season
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Coventry City | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.97 · 19th | (better) 1.45 · 13th |
| xGA / match | 1.73 · 12th | (better) 0.95 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.75 · 18th | (better) +0.50 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 0.87 · 19th | (better) 1.72 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.75 | (better) +0.55 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Coventry City clean sheet
- 25%
- Coventry City 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.6%
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 1:2
- 9.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Coventry City sample
- 5 matches
- Nottingham Forest sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Coventry City
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Nottingham Forest
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30
Warnings
- Coventry City has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.