Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 15:00
7d 14h to kick-offCrystal Palace – Nottingham Forest
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Crystal Palace
- 36%
- Draw
- 31%
- Nottingham Forest
- 33%
| Crystal Palace | Draw | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.79 | 3.22 | 3.02 |
- Total goals
- 2.60
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
Crystal Palace
- Model
- 35.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 35.1%
- Probability gap
- +0.7 pp
- Edge
- −6.1%
- Fair odds
- 2.79
- Market odds
- 2.63 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.93
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 31.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 30.7%
- Probability gap
- +0.4 pp
- Edge
- −6.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.22
- Market odds
- 3.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.38
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
-
Nottingham Forest
- Model
- 33.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 34.1%
- Probability gap
- −1.0 pp
- Edge
- −10.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.02
- Market odds
- 2.70 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.17
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
Outcomes with value
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Match result
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model can't separate them
36% Crystal Palace to win
- Attack
- 18th vs 7th
- Crystal Palace attack v Nottingham Forest defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 13th
- Crystal Palace defence v Nottingham Forest attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.79 vs +0.55
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.33 – 1.27
- Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest
Squad news
Crystal Palace
12 listed-
Jean-Philippe Mateta 0% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - Expected back 11 Oct
-
Dean Henderson 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Foot injury - Expected back 11 Oct
-
Axel Disasi 0% chance
Defender · Suspended until 25 Oct
-
Rio Cardines 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Bristol City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Romain Esse 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Millwall on loan for the rest of the season
-
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi 0% chance
Midfielder · has joined Kasimpasa on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Justin Devenny 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Stoke City permanently
-
Christantus Uche 0% chance
Forward · has returned to Getafe CF
-
Matheus França 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Alverca on loan for the rest of the season
-
Borna Sosa 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Cologne on loan for the rest of the season
-
Chadi Riad Dnanou 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Takehiro Tomiyasu 75% chance
Defender · Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
Nottingham Forest
7 listed-
Nikola Milenković 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 11 Oct
-
Zach Abbott 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Southampton on loan for the rest of the season
-
Tyler Bindon 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Charlton Athletic on loan for the rest of the season
-
Omari Hutchinson 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined AC Milan on loan for the rest of the season
-
Morato 0% chance
Defender · Has joined West Ham on loan for the rest of the season
-
Nicolò Savona 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Dilane Bakwa 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Lille on loan for the rest of the season
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.25 · 15th | (better) 1.45 · 13th |
| xGA / match | 1.89 · 20th | (better) 0.95 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.64 · 17th | (better) +0.50 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 0.95 · 17th | (better) 1.72 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.79 | (better) +0.55 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Crystal Palace clean sheet
- 25%
- Crystal Palace 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.8%
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Crystal Palace sample
- 20 matches
- Nottingham Forest sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Crystal Palace
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Nottingham Forest
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.