Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Crystal Palace – Leeds United
Model updated 4 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Crystal Palace
- 38%
- Draw
- 31%
- Leeds United
- 31%
| Crystal Palace | Draw | Leeds United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.64 | 3.22 | 3.22 |
- Total goals
- 2.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Crystal Palace
38% Crystal Palace to win
- Attack
- 18th vs 10th
- Crystal Palace attack v Leeds United defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 14th
- Crystal Palace defence v Leeds United attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.79 vs +0.07
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.36 – 1.22
- Crystal Palace v Leeds United
Squad news
Crystal Palace
12 listed-
Dean Henderson 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Foot injury - Expected back 11 Oct
-
Jean-Philippe Mateta 0% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - Expected back 11 Oct
-
Axel Disasi 0% chance
Defender · Suspended until 25 Oct
-
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi 0% chance
Midfielder · has joined Kasimpasa on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Rio Cardines 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Bristol City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Christantus Uche 0% chance
Forward · has returned to Getafe CF
-
Justin Devenny 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Stoke City permanently
-
Matheus França 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Alverca on loan for the rest of the season
-
Chadi Riad Dnanou 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Borna Sosa 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Cologne on loan for the rest of the season
-
Romain Esse 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Millwall on loan for the rest of the season
-
Takehiro Tomiyasu 75% chance
Defender · Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
Leeds United
8 listed-
Harry Wilson 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Joe Rodon 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
-
Lucas Perri 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Torino on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joël Piroe 0% chance
Forward · Has joined West Ham United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mateo Joseph Fernández-Regatillo 0% chance
Forward · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Jack Harrison 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined New England Revolution permanently
-
Wilfried Gnonto 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined ACF Fiorentina on loan for the rest of the season
-
Sebastiaan Bornauw 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Hamburg SV on loan for the rest of the season
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Crystal Palace | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.25 · 15th | (better) 1.56 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 1.89 · 20th | (better) 1.27 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.64 · 17th | (better) +0.29 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 0.95 · 17th | (better) 1.55 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.79 | (better) +0.07 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Crystal Palace clean sheet
- 27%
- Crystal Palace 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 10.0%
- 1:2
- 8.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Crystal Palace sample
- 20 matches
- Leeds United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Crystal Palace
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Leeds United
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.