Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 15:00
14d 13h to kick-offLeeds United – Manchester United
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Leeds United
- 29%
- Draw
- 29%
- Manchester United
- 42%
| Leeds United | Draw | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.45 | 3.43 | 2.39 |
- Total goals
- 2.83
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Manchester United
42% Manchester United to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 10th
- Manchester United attack v Leeds United defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 14th
- Manchester United defence v Leeds United attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.59 vs +0.07
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.28 – 1.55
- Leeds United v Manchester United
Squad news
Leeds United
8 listed-
Harry Wilson 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Joe Rodon 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
-
Lucas Perri 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Torino on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joël Piroe 0% chance
Forward · Has joined West Ham United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mateo Joseph Fernández-Regatillo 0% chance
Forward · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Jack Harrison 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined New England Revolution permanently
-
Sebastiaan Bornauw 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Hamburg SV on loan for the rest of the season
-
Wilfried Gnonto 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined ACF Fiorentina on loan for the rest of the season
Manchester United
13 listed-
Chido Obi 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Willem II on loan for the rest of the season
-
Amad Diallo 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Tom Heaton 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
-
Manuel Ugarte Ribeiro 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Tyler Fredricson 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Lausanne-Sport permanently
-
Altay Bayındır 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Celta Vigo on loan for the rest of the season
-
Toby Collyer 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined West Brom permanently
-
Matthijs de Ligt 0% chance
Defender · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Benjamin Sesko 75% chance
Forward · Shin injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Kobbie Mainoo 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Marcus Rashford 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Patrick Dorgu 75% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Karl Darlow 75% chance
Goalkeeper · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Leeds United | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.56 · 9th | (better) 1.93 · 4th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.27 · 5th | 1.40 · 8th |
| xGD / match | +0.29 · 8th | (better) +0.53 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.55 · 8th | (better) 1.60 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.07 | (better) +0.59 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Manchester United clean sheet
- 25%
- Manchester United 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.4%
- 1:2
- 10.5%
- 2:1
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Leeds United sample
- 20 matches
- Manchester United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Leeds United
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Manchester United
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.