Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Newcastle United – Coventry City
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Newcastle United
- 37%
- Draw
- 30%
- Coventry City
- 33%
| Newcastle United | Draw | Coventry City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.73 | 3.33 | 3.00 |
- Total goals
- 2.76
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model can't separate them
37% Newcastle United to win
- Attack
- 19th vs 17th
- Newcastle United attack v Coventry City defence
- Defence
- 20th vs 17th
- Newcastle United defence v Coventry City attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.89 vs -0.75
- xGD per match, last 5
- Projected goals
- 1.42 – 1.35
- Newcastle United v Coventry City
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Squad news
Newcastle United
12 listed-
Anthony Elanga 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Amar Dedic 0% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Dan Burn 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Expected back 12 Oct
-
Nick Woltemade 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Sean Neave 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Wolves on loan for the rest of the season
-
William Osula 0% chance
Forward · Foot injury - Unknown return date
-
Jacob Ramsey 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Leo Shahar 0% chance
Defender · has joined Arouca on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Alex Murphy 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Kaiserslautern on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joelinton 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Ewen Jaouen 50% chance
Goalkeeper · Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing
-
Tino Livramento 75% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Coventry City
14 listed-
Oliver Dovin 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Leyton Orient on loan for the rest of the season
-
Aurèle Amenda 0% chance
Defender · Calf injury - Unknown return date
-
Taiwo Awoniyi 0% chance
Forward · Suspended until 19 Oct
-
Kai Andrews 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Liam Kitching 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Sheffield United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Raphael Borges Rodrigues 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Burton Albion on loan for the rest of the season
-
Haji Wright 0% chance
Forward · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Luke Woolfenden 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Jahnoah Markelo 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai permanently
-
Kaine Kesler-Hayden 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
-
Miguel Brau 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Academico de Viseu on loan for the rest of the season
-
Josh Eccles 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Expected back 12 Oct
-
Norman Bassette 0% chance
Forward · Has joined KVC Westerlo on loan for the rest of the season
-
Milan van Ewijk 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Newcastle United | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.07 · 17th | 0.97 · 19th |
| xGA / match | 1.83 · 18th | (better) 1.73 · 12th |
| xGD / match | -0.76 · 19th | (better) -0.75 · 18th |
| xPts / match | 0.82 · 20th | (better) 0.87 · 19th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.89 | (better) -0.75 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Newcastle United clean sheet
- 23%
- Newcastle United 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.0%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Newcastle United sample
- 20 matches
- Coventry City sample
- 5 matches
- Home xG sample · Newcastle United
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Coventry City
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Coventry City has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.