Nottingham Forest 0:1 Sunderland: xG & match report · Premier League

Saturday, 27/09/2025 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Nottingham Forest Home 1.65 xG · 22 shots

Sunderland Away 1.19 xG · 11 shots

01 The result went against the chances

Goals

38' Omar Alderete Sunderland · 0.32 xG chance 0–1

The shots behind it

Nottingham Forest Sunderland

Shots: 22; 11
On target: 6; 3
Inside the box: 15; 8
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.11
Open play xG: 1.27; 0.60
Set-piece xG: 0.37; 0.61
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.66 for Nottingham Forest and 1.19 for Sunderland.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

33 shots · 2.85 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Nottingham Forest
Sunderland
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Nottingham Forest

0.96 xG created 1.54 xGA

W 1.86 created, 1.50 conceded against Brentford
D 0.93 created, 1.10 conceded against Crystal Palace
L 0.73 created, 2.42 conceded against West Ham United
L 0.20 created, 1.84 conceded against Arsenal
D 1.10 created, 0.85 conceded against Burnley

Sunderland

0.88 xG created 1.06 xGA

W 0.68 created, 0.56 conceded against West Ham United
L 0.77 created, 1.00 conceded against Burnley
W 1.54 created, 1.20 conceded against Brentford
D 0.36 created, 1.77 conceded against Crystal Palace
D 1.04 created, 0.78 conceded against Aston Villa

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.