Nottingham Forest's recorded results for 2026/2027, newest first, with the available xG behind each score. Compare outcomes with the chances created and conceded, then open a match for more detail.
Showing 3 of 3 matching results
5 played this season
3 available results · Last 10 requested
Reset filtersResults
- Wins – draws – losses (W–D–L)
- 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses
1 pts 0–2 goals −2 GD
Chances
- Provider xG / xGA
- 2.68 – 2.20
- 0.89 – 0.73 per match
- xGD
- +0.48
- +0.16 per match
- xG record
- 1 with the chances, 2 with even chances, 0 against them
Small sample: 3 matches.
Comparable xG: 3 of 3 completed results.
Points vs xPts Model
1 pts 4.4 xPts
−3.4 vs xPts
Match points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before deductions or sanctions.
Points vs xPts uses only matches with available xPts on both sides of the comparison.
What the results say
Last 10 · All competitions · Home
Nottingham Forest's winless run sits behind chances that argue for more. They out-created the opponent in 2 of 3 matches, for +0.48 xG difference overall on 2.68–2.20. Their points total of 1 sits 3.4 below the model's 4.4 xPts, so the chances have clearly outrun the results.
Points minus xPts, match by match
Over these 3 results Nottingham Forest are 3.42 points below their xPts.
- Points
- 1
- xPts
- 4.42
- Gap
- -3.42
- This match
- Match gap
- Running gap
| Date | Opponent | Points | xPts | Match gap | Running gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 22/08 | Leeds United | 0 | 1.48 | -1.48 | -1.48 |
| Sat 05/09 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 1.19 | -0.19 | -1.67 |
| Sat 19/09 | Coventry City | 0 | 1.75 | -1.75 | -3.42 |
Scores and xG
Nottingham Forest first
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Match analysis →
Why this label · Coventry City, Sat 19/09
The team lost despite recording a positive xG difference. The outcome was weaker than that chance advantage suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 0
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.75
- Points minus xPts
- -1.75
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · Tottenham Hotspur, Sat 05/09
The match was drawn and the chance difference was approximately even. The two readings broadly align.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 1
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.20
- Points minus xPts
- -0.20
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · Leeds United, Sat 22/08
The team lost, while the chance difference was approximately even. The outcome was weaker than that difference alone suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 0
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.48
- Points minus xPts
- -1.48
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated →
Reading these results
xG is the provider's estimate of chances created; xGA is the opponent's xG. xGD is the difference. Labels compare the recorded outcome with those chances; they are interpretations, not judgments about fairness.
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
How each figure on this page is read
Every xG bar is drawn on one fixed scale: full width is 7.20 xG, the same on every card and in every window, so two cards can be compared by eye. A rarer match above that is capped with a hatched end, and the figure beside the bar still gives its value.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
Goal difference minus xGD says how far a scoreline finished from the chances behind it: a 4:2 won off level chances ran nearly two goals ahead of them. The two callouts under the list name the match that ran furthest each way, and a direction with no result a full goal clear of the chances gets no card rather than a card built from a rounding.
Windows count back from the most recent recorded match, and only matches attached to this club record are included. Home and away mean the provider-designated side, not a verified physical venue. Scores describe recorded play, not shootout advancement. Unverified periods receive no chance comparison.