Friday, 28/08/2026 at 20:15
Kicked offFC Koper – NK Aluminij Kidričevo
Model not yet run Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Koper
- 56%
- Draw
- 26%
- NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- 18%
| FC Koper | Draw | NK Aluminij Kidričevo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.80 | 3.78 | 5.55 |
- Total goals
- 2.85
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Koper
56% FC Koper to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 7th
- FC Koper attack v NK Aluminij Kidričevo defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 9th
- FC Koper defence v NK Aluminij Kidričevo attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.46 vs +0.15
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.83 – 1.02
- FC Koper v NK Aluminij Kidričevo
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Koper | NK Aluminij Kidričevo |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.53 · 4th | 1.44 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.28 · 3rd | 1.48 · 6th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.25 · 4th | -0.05 · 6th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.55 · 4th | 1.29 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.46 | +0.15 |
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Koper sample
- 20 matches
- NK Aluminij Kidričevo sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Koper
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- 4 matches
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.