Kalcer Radomlje 0:3 NK Maribor: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 20:15

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Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Kalcer Radomlje Home 0.99 xG

NK Maribor Away 1.91 xG

03 The scoreline reflected the chances

NK Maribor were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 3–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Kalcer Radomlje: 24%
Draw: 28%
NK Maribor: 48% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Kalcer Radomlje 1.22 0.99 -0.23

NK Maribor 1.75 1.91 +0.16

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Kalcer Radomlje NK Maribor

Shots: 10; 15
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 8; 9
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Kalcer Radomlje

1.41 xG created 2.09 xGA

D 1.26 created, 2.75 conceded against FC Koper
L 2.40 created, 1.31 conceded against NK Bravo
W 1.66 created, 1.24 conceded against NŠ Mura
L 1.02 created, 1.28 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
D 1.27 created, 2.70 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
L 0.84 created, 3.23 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903

NK Maribor

1.29 xG created 0.74 xGA

D 1.44 created, 1.35 conceded against NK Celje
W 0.40 created, 0.54 conceded against FC Koper
D 0.97 created, 0.46 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
W 1.55 created, 0.97 conceded against NK Bravo
W 1.99 created, 0.52 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
D 1.38 created, 0.58 conceded against NŠ Mura

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Kalcer Radomlje: 1 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Kalcer Radomlje against NK Maribor before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Kalcer Radomlje to win	4.50	+8.3%	Lost
Kalcer Radomlje to score	1.44	+6.1%	Lost
Kalcer Radomlje 2+ goals	3.00	+5.7%	Lost
NK Maribor at most 1 goal	2.25	+3.6%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+3.3%	Lost
Draw	3.75	+3.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Kalcer Radomlje	24.1%	20.0%	+4.1 pp	4.16
Draw	27.5%	23.9%	+3.6 pp	3.63
NK Maribor	48.4%	56.1%	−7.7 pp	2.06

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Kalcer Radomlje to score	73.5%	64.5%	+9.0 pp	1.36
Kalcer Radomlje not to score	26.5%	35.5%	−9.0 pp	3.77
NK Maribor to score	84.9%	84.4%	+0.5 pp	1.18
NK Maribor not to score	15.1%	15.6%	−0.5 pp	6.62
Both teams to score	63.9%	57.7%	+6.3 pp	1.56
Both teams not to score	36.1%	42.3%	−6.3 pp	2.77
Kalcer Radomlje 2+ goals	35.2%	31.3%	+4.0 pp	2.84
Kalcer Radomlje at most 1 goal	64.8%	68.7%	−4.0 pp	1.54
NK Maribor 2+ goals	54.0%	58.9%	−4.9 pp	1.85
NK Maribor at most 1 goal	46.0%	41.1%	+4.9 pp	2.17
Over 1.5 goals	83.6%	79.4%	+4.2 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.4%	20.6%	−4.2 pp	6.08
Over 2.5 goals	58.8%	59.9%	−1.1 pp	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	41.2%	40.1%	+1.1 pp	2.43

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Kalcer Radomlje sample: 20 matches
NK Maribor sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.