xgEdge

Expected goals

ND Primorje expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · after 35 matches · updated 4 Oct

ND Primorje's attacking and defensive expected goals in PrvaLiga (Slovenia) 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

ND Primorje xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.19 xG per match
#9/10
Attack (xG per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 NK Celje 2.22
#2 NK Maribor 2.05
#3 FC Koper 1.98
#4 NK Bravo 1.82
#5 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.49
#6 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.38
#7 Kalcer Radomlje 1.28
#8 NŠ Mura 1.26
#9 ND Primorje 1.19
#10 NK Domžale 1.05
League avg
1.59
Total
41.64 35 matches
Defence
1.73 xGA per match
#7/10
Defence (xGA per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 NK Celje 1.17
#2 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.37
#3 NŠ Mura 1.47
#4 NK Maribor 1.51
#5 FC Koper 1.54
#6 NK Bravo 1.56
#7 ND Primorje 1.73
#8 NK Domžale 1.87
#9 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.90
#10 Kalcer Radomlje 1.94
League avg
1.59
Total
60.40 35 matches
xG difference
-0.54 xGD per match
#8/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 NK Celje +1.04
#2 NK Maribor +0.54
#3 FC Koper +0.43
#4 NK Bravo +0.27
#5 NK Olimpija Ljubljana +0.12
#6 NŠ Mura -0.21
#7 NK Aluminij Kidričevo -0.52
#8 ND Primorje -0.54
#9 Kalcer Radomlje -0.66
#10 NK Domžale -0.82
League avg
0.00
Total
-18.76 35 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.05 xPts per match
#8/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 NK Celje 2.03
#2 NK Maribor 1.73
#3 FC Koper 1.68
#4 NK Bravo 1.52
#5 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.48
#6 NŠ Mura 1.23
#7 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.08
#8 ND Primorje 1.05
#9 Kalcer Radomlje 1.04
#10 NK Domžale 0.85
League avg
1.39
Total
36.73 vs 23 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 35 of 36 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

ND Primorje's underlying numbers are among the weakest in PrvaLiga (Slovenia). They rank #8 for xG difference at -0.54 per match, from low shot volume and low chance quality. Their 31 goals are 10.64 below 41.64 xG, while 22 points are 14.73 below 36.73 xPts — both over the 35 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.06 xG from penalties
31 41.64 -10.64 scored 10.64 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
75 60.40 +14.60 conceded 14.60 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
22 36.73 -14.73 14.73 points below xPts far outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

ND Primorje are 10.64 goals below their xG after 35 matches.

Goals
31
xG
41.64
Gap
-10.64
Sat 19/07 Mon 28/07 Sat 02/08 Sun 10/08 Fri 15/08 Sun 24/08 Sun 31/08 Sun 14/09 Sun 21/09 Sat 27/09 Sun 05/10 Sun 19/10 Sat 25/10 Sun 02/11 Fri 07/11 Sun 23/11 Fri 28/11 Sun 07/12 Tue 03/02 Sat 07/02 Sun 15/02 Sat 21/02 Sat 28/02 Sat 07/03 Sun 15/03 Sun 22/03 Fri 10/04 Wed 15/04 Sat 18/04 Sun 26/04 Sat 02/05 Sun 10/05 Sat 16/05 Fri 22/05 Sun 31/05 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 +1 +3 +1.34 -0.36 -0.11 -0.39 -1.13 -1.20 -0.33 +1.91 +3.20 +2.62 +2.76 +1.97 +0.62 +1.19 -0.98 -1.36 -1.74 -2.23 -2.32 +0.09 -1.84 -2.43 -2.98 -2.37 -3.50 -3.67 -4.84 -5.17 -5.98 -7.85 -8.22 -8.45 -9.79 -10.28 -10.64 +1.34 -1.70 +0.25 -0.28 -0.74 -0.07 +0.87 +2.24 +1.29 -0.58 +0.14 -0.79 -1.35 +0.57 -2.17 -0.38 -0.38 -0.49 -0.09 +2.41 -1.93 -0.59 -0.55 +0.61 -1.13 -0.17 -1.17 -0.33 -0.81 -1.87 -0.37 -0.23 -1.34 -0.49 -0.36 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
ND Primorje: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 19/07 NK Domžale 3 1.66 +1.34 +1.34
Mon 28/07 FC Koper 0 1.70 -1.70 -0.36
Sat 02/08 NK Bravo 1 0.75 +0.25 -0.11
Sun 10/08 NK Maribor 0 0.28 -0.28 -0.39
Fri 15/08 Kalcer Radomlje 1 1.74 -0.74 -1.13
Sun 24/08 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1 1.07 -0.07 -1.20
Sun 31/08 NŠ Mura 2 1.13 +0.87 -0.33
Sun 14/09 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 4 1.76 +2.24 +1.91
Sun 21/09 NK Celje 2 0.71 +1.29 +3.20
Sat 27/09 NK Domžale 0 0.58 -0.58 +2.62
Sun 05/10 FC Koper 2 1.86 +0.14 +2.76
Sun 19/10 NK Bravo 0 0.79 -0.79 +1.97
Sat 25/10 NK Maribor 0 1.35 -1.35 +0.62
Sun 02/11 Kalcer Radomlje 1 0.43 +0.57 +1.19
Fri 07/11 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0 2.17 -2.17 -0.98
Sun 23/11 NŠ Mura 1 1.38 -0.38 -1.36
Fri 28/11 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0 0.38 -0.38 -1.74
Sun 07/12 NK Celje 1 1.49 -0.49 -2.23
Tue 03/02 FC Koper 1 1.09 -0.09 -2.32
Sat 07/02 NK Bravo 3 0.59 +2.41 +0.09
Sun 15/02 NK Maribor 0 1.93 -1.93 -1.84
Sat 21/02 Kalcer Radomlje 1 1.59 -0.59 -2.43
Sat 28/02 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0 0.55 -0.55 -2.98
Sat 07/03 NŠ Mura 1 0.39 +0.61 -2.37
Sun 15/03 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 2 3.13 -1.13 -3.50
Sun 22/03 NK Celje 1 1.17 -0.17 -3.67
Fri 10/04 FC Koper 0 1.17 -1.17 -4.84
Wed 15/04 NK Bravo 1 1.33 -0.33 -5.17
Sat 18/04 NK Maribor 0 0.81 -0.81 -5.98
Sun 26/04 Kalcer Radomlje 2 3.87 -1.87 -7.85
Sat 02/05 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0 0.37 -0.37 -8.22
Sun 10/05 NŠ Mura 0 0.23 -0.23 -8.45
Sat 16/05 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0 1.34 -1.34 -9.79
Fri 22/05 NK Celje 0 0.49 -0.49 -10.28
Sun 31/05 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 0 0.36 -0.36 -10.64

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

ND Primorje xG trend

Current form -0.76 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 15 of 35 matches. The worst was against NŠ Mura on Sun 10/05 (-3.44).

npxG · last 6
1.11
npxGA · last 6
1.87
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.07 Sat 19/07 +0.37 Mon 28/07 -1.40 Sat 02/08 -1.85 Sun 10/08 +0.22 Fri 15/08 +0.09 Sun 24/08 +0.15 Sun 31/08 +0.84 Sun 14/09 -0.81 Sun 21/09 +0.36 Sat 27/09 +0.26 Sun 05/10 -0.94 Sun 19/10 -1.86 Sat 25/10 -1.01 Sun 02/11 +0.73 Fri 07/11 +0.77 Sun 23/11 -0.82 Fri 28/11 -2.33 Sun 07/12 -0.21 Tue 03/02 -0.67 Sat 07/02 +0.84 Sun 15/02 +0.15 Sat 21/02 -0.29 Sat 28/02 -1.60 Sat 07/03 +2.26 Sun 15/03 -2.15 Sun 22/03 -1.06 Fri 10/04 -0.50 Wed 15/04 -0.95 Sat 18/04 +1.21 Sun 26/04 -0.75 Sat 02/05 -3.44 Sun 10/05 +0.51 Sat 16/05 -1.96 Fri 22/05 -0.15 Sun 31/05 -0.45 season avg
ND Primorje: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 19/07 NK Domžale 1.65 1.58 +0.07 +0.07
Mon 28/07 FC Koper 1.70 1.33 +0.37 +0.22
Sat 02/08 NK Bravo 0.75 2.15 -1.40 -0.32
Sun 10/08 NK Maribor 0.28 2.13 -1.85 -0.70
Fri 15/08 Kalcer Radomlje 1.74 1.52 +0.22 -0.52
Sun 24/08 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.07 0.98 +0.09 -0.42
Sun 31/08 NŠ Mura 1.13 0.98 +0.15 -0.34
Sun 14/09 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.76 0.92 +0.84 -0.19
Sun 21/09 NK Celje 0.81 1.62 -0.81 -0.26
Sat 27/09 NK Domžale 0.83 0.47 +0.36 -0.20
Sun 05/10 FC Koper 1.86 1.60 +0.26 -0.15
Sun 19/10 NK Bravo 0.79 1.73 -0.94 -0.22
Sat 25/10 NK Maribor 1.35 3.21 -1.86 -0.35
Sun 02/11 Kalcer Radomlje 0.43 1.44 -1.01 -0.39
Fri 07/11 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 2.18 1.45 +0.73 -0.32
Sun 23/11 NŠ Mura 1.38 0.61 +0.77 -0.25
Fri 28/11 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0.38 1.20 -0.82 -0.28
Sun 07/12 NK Celje 0.73 3.06 -2.33 -0.40
Tue 03/02 FC Koper 1.09 1.30 -0.21 -0.39
Sat 07/02 NK Bravo 0.59 1.26 -0.67 -0.40
Sun 15/02 NK Maribor 1.93 1.09 +0.84 -0.34
Sat 21/02 Kalcer Radomlje 0.83 0.68 +0.15 -0.32
Sat 28/02 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0.66 0.95 -0.29 -0.32
Sat 07/03 NŠ Mura 0.39 1.99 -1.60 -0.37
Sun 15/03 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 3.13 0.87 +2.26 -0.27
Sun 22/03 NK Celje 1.17 3.32 -2.15 -0.34
Fri 10/04 FC Koper 1.17 2.23 -1.06 -0.37
Wed 15/04 NK Bravo 1.33 1.83 -0.50 -0.37
Sat 18/04 NK Maribor 0.81 1.76 -0.95 -0.39
Sun 26/04 Kalcer Radomlje 3.87 2.66 +1.21 -0.34
Sat 02/05 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0.37 1.12 -0.75 -0.35
Sun 10/05 NŠ Mura 0.23 3.67 -3.44 -0.45
Sat 16/05 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.34 0.83 +0.51 -0.42
Fri 22/05 NK Celje 0.49 2.45 -1.96 -0.46
Sun 31/05 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 0.36 0.51 -0.15 -0.45

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.16 npxG and 1.61 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 3 hardest of 9 in PrvaLiga (Slovenia)
+0.06 xG vs league average
Over 36 league matches
Last 5
tied number 4 hardest of 10 in PrvaLiga (Slovenia)
+0.05 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.06 xG vs league average · over 36 matches · number 3 hardest of 9

  1. NK Nafta Lendava 1903 Away −0.01
  2. NK Nafta Lendava 1903 Home −0.01
  3. NK Celje Home +0.37
  4. NK Aluminij Kidričevo Away −0.42
  5. NŠ Mura Home +0.32
  6. NK Olimpija Ljubljana Away +0.07
  7. Kalcer Radomlje Home −0.57
  8. NK Maribor Away +0.35
  9. NK Bravo Away +0.22
  10. FC Koper Home +0.41
  11. NK Celje Away +0.37
  12. NK Aluminij Kidričevo Home −0.42
  13. NŠ Mura Away +0.32
  14. NK Olimpija Ljubljana Home +0.07
  15. Kalcer Radomlje Away −0.57
  16. NK Maribor Home +0.35
  17. NK Bravo Home +0.22
  18. FC Koper Away +0.41
  19. NK Celje Away +0.37
  20. NK Aluminij Kidričevo Away −0.42
  21. NŠ Mura Home +0.32
  22. NK Olimpija Ljubljana Away +0.07
  23. Kalcer Radomlje Home −0.57
  24. NK Maribor Away +0.35
  25. NK Bravo Away +0.22
  26. FC Koper Home +0.41
  27. NK Domžale Away −0.44
  28. NK Celje Home +0.37
  29. NK Aluminij Kidričevo Home −0.42
  30. NŠ Mura Away +0.32
  31. NK Olimpija Ljubljana Home +0.07
  32. Kalcer Radomlje Away −0.57
  33. NK Maribor Home +0.35
  34. NK Bravo Home +0.22
  35. FC Koper Away +0.41
  36. NK Domžale Home −0.44

Last 5

+0.05 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 4 hardest of 10

  1. NK Nafta Lendava 1903 Away −0.01
  2. NK Nafta Lendava 1903 Home −0.01
  3. NK Celje Home +0.37
  4. NK Aluminij Kidričevo Away −0.42
  5. NŠ Mura Home +0.32

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

ND Primorje shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. ND Primorje take 10.5 shots a match (league 11.8) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #7 in PrvaLiga (Slovenia) for volume and #8 for quality. 55% of their shots come from inside the box (league 62%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.5 shots per match
#7/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 NK Celje 14.4
#2 NK Bravo 14.0
#3 NK Maribor 13.4
#4 FC Koper 13.3
#5 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 12.0
#6 NŠ Mura 11.6
#7 ND Primorje 10.5
#8 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 9.5
#9 Kalcer Radomlje 9.4
#10 NK Domžale 9.2
League avg
11.8
Total
367 shots from 35 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#8/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 NK Maribor 0.15
#2 NK Celje 0.14
#3 FC Koper 0.13
#4 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0.13
#5 Kalcer Radomlje 0.12
#6 NK Bravo 0.12
#7 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0.11
#8 ND Primorje 0.11
#9 NŠ Mura 0.10
#10 NK Domžale 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
40.58 npxG from 367 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
12.5 shots per match
#7/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 NK Celje 9.7
#2 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 10.0
#3 NŠ Mura 10.4
#4 FC Koper 11.3
#5 NK Maribor 11.5
#6 NK Bravo 11.9
#7 ND Primorje 12.5
#8 NK Domžale 13.6
#9 Kalcer Radomlje 13.6
#10 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 14.4
League avg
11.8
Total
439 shots allowed from 35 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#10/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 NK Celje 0.11
#2 NK Maribor 0.12
#3 NK Bravo 0.12
#4 NK Domžale 0.12
#5 NŠ Mura 0.12
#6 FC Koper 0.13
#7 Kalcer Radomlje 0.13
#8 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0.13
#9 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0.13
#10 ND Primorje 0.13
League avg
0.12
Total
56.50 npxGA from 439 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

55% inside the box

League avg 62%

From 202 of 367 shots over 35 matches

Shots allowed, location

63% allowed inside the box

League avg 62%

From 278 of 439 shots allowed over 35 matches

How the shot figures are made →

ND Primorje home and away xG

ND Primorje per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 18 17 with xG 18
xG / match 1.29 1.10
xGA / match 1.84 1.62
xGD / match -0.55 -0.52
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.08 1.02

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every ND Primorje match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
18
xG / match
1.10
xGA / match
1.62
xGD / match
-0.52
Points
3 of 54
  1. Sun 31/05 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 A xG 0.36 xGA 0.51 xGD -0.15
  2. Sat 16/05 NK Aluminij Kidričevo A xG 1.34 xGA 0.83 xGD +0.51
  3. Sat 02/05 NK Olimpija Ljubljana A xG 0.37 xGA 1.12 xGD -0.75
  4. Sat 18/04 NK Maribor A xG 0.81 xGA 1.76 xGD -0.95
  5. Wed 15/04 NK Bravo A xG 1.33 xGA 1.83 xGD -0.50
  6. Sun 22/03 NK Celje A Weakest underlying xG 1.17 xGA 3.32 xGD -2.15
  7. Sat 07/03 NŠ Mura A xG 0.39 xGA 1.99 xGD -1.60
  8. Sat 21/02 Kalcer Radomlje A Best underlying xG 1.59 P xGA 0.68 xGD +0.91
  9. Tue 03/02 FC Koper A xG 1.09 xGA 1.30 xGD -0.21
  10. Sun 07/12 NK Celje A xG 1.49 P xGA 3.07 xGD -1.58
  11. Fri 28/11 NK Aluminij Kidričevo A xG 0.38 xGA 1.21 xGD -0.83
  12. Fri 07/11 NK Olimpija Ljubljana A xG 2.17 xGA 1.45 xGD +0.72
  13. Sat 25/10 NK Maribor A xG 1.35 xGA 3.21 xGD -1.86
  14. Sun 19/10 NK Bravo A xG 0.79 xGA 1.81 xGD -1.02
  15. Sat 27/09 NK Domžale A xG 0.58 xGA 0.47 xGD +0.11
  16. Sun 31/08 NŠ Mura A xG 1.13 xGA 0.98 xGD +0.15
  17. Fri 15/08 Kalcer Radomlje A xG 1.74 xGA 1.52 xGD +0.22
  18. Mon 28/07 FC Koper A xG 1.70 xGA 2.08 P xGD -0.38

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.32. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

ND Primorje in PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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