xgEdge

Expected goals

NK Bravo expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · after 10 matches · updated 1 Oct

NK Bravo's attacking and defensive expected goals in PrvaLiga (Slovenia) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

NK Bravo xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.48 xG per match
#5/10
Attack (xG per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.76
#2 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.66
#3 NK Celje 1.59
#4 FC Koper 1.53
#5 NK Bravo 1.48
#6 NK Maribor 1.48
#7 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.44
#8 Kalcer Radomlje 1.31
#9 NŠ Mura 1.26
#10 Brinje Grosuplje 1.25
League avg
1.48
Total
14.81 10 matches
Defence
1.92 xGA per match
#9/10
Defence (xGA per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 NK Maribor 0.84
#2 NK Celje 1.05
#3 FC Koper 1.28
#4 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.32
#5 NŠ Mura 1.39
#6 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.48
#7 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.70
#8 Brinje Grosuplje 1.77
#9 NK Bravo 1.92
#10 Kalcer Radomlje 1.96
League avg
1.48
Total
19.18 10 matches
xG difference
-0.44 xGD per match
#8/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 NK Maribor +0.64
#2 NK Celje +0.54
#3 NK Olimpija Ljubljana +0.34
#4 FC Koper +0.25
#5 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 +0.05
#6 NK Aluminij Kidričevo -0.05
#7 NŠ Mura -0.13
#8 NK Bravo -0.44
#9 Brinje Grosuplje -0.52
#10 Kalcer Radomlje -0.65
League avg
0.00
Total
-4.37 10 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.06 xPts per match
#8/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 NK Maribor 1.84
#2 NK Celje 1.78
#3 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.61
#4 FC Koper 1.55
#5 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.37
#6 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.29
#7 NŠ Mura 1.22
#8 NK Bravo 1.06
#9 Brinje Grosuplje 1.06
#10 Kalcer Radomlje 0.99
League avg
1.37
Total
10.62 vs 18 actual pts

What the xG says

NK Bravo's underlying numbers are among the weakest in PrvaLiga (Slovenia). They rank #8 for xG difference at -0.44 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 12 goals are 2.81 below 14.81 xG, while 18 points are 7.38 above 10.62 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.41 xG from penalties
12 14.81 -2.81 scored 2.81 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
10 19.18 -9.18 conceded 9.18 fewer than xGA far outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
18 10.62 +7.38 7.38 points above xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

NK Bravo are 2.81 goals below their xG after 10 matches. The gap was widest at -4.47, against NK Aluminij Kidričevo on Sat 05/09.

Goals
12
xG
14.81
Gap
-2.81
Sat 18/07 Sun 26/07 Sun 02/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 16/08 Sun 23/08 Sat 29/08 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.44 -2.31 -1.62 -1.90 -3.50 -3.47 -3.10 -4.47 -2.89 -2.81 -0.44 -1.87 +0.69 -0.28 -1.60 +0.03 +0.37 -1.37 +1.58 +0.08 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
NK Bravo: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 18/07 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 2 2.44 -0.44 -0.44
Sun 26/07 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 0 1.87 -1.87 -2.31
Sun 02/08 Kalcer Radomlje 2 1.31 +0.69 -1.62
Sun 09/08 Brinje Grosuplje 1 1.28 -0.28 -1.90
Sun 16/08 FC Koper 0 1.60 -1.60 -3.50
Sun 23/08 NK Maribor 1 0.97 +0.03 -3.47
Sat 29/08 NŠ Mura 2 1.63 +0.37 -3.10
Sat 05/09 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0 1.37 -1.37 -4.47
Sat 12/09 NK Celje 2 0.42 +1.58 -2.89
Sun 20/09 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 2 1.92 +0.08 -2.81

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

NK Bravo xG trend

Current form -0.71 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 10 matches. The worst was against NK Celje on Sat 12/09 (-1.35).

npxG · last 6
1.08
npxGA · last 6
1.80
-2 -1 0 +1 +0.68 Sat 18/07 -0.31 Sun 26/07 -0.33 Sun 02/08 -0.90 Sun 09/08 -0.52 Sun 16/08 -0.48 Sun 23/08 -0.79 Sat 29/08 +0.19 Sat 05/09 -1.35 Sat 12/09 -1.33 Sun 20/09 -0.51 season avg
NK Bravo: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 18/07 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 2.44 1.76 +0.68 +0.68
Sun 26/07 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.87 2.18 -0.31 +0.19
Sun 02/08 Kalcer Radomlje 1.31 1.64 -0.33 +0.01
Sun 09/08 Brinje Grosuplje 1.28 2.18 -0.90 -0.21
Sun 16/08 FC Koper 1.60 2.12 -0.52 -0.28
Sun 23/08 NK Maribor 1.07 1.55 -0.48 -0.31
Sat 29/08 NŠ Mura 1.63 2.42 -0.79 -0.38
Sat 05/09 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.38 1.19 +0.19 -0.31
Sat 12/09 NK Celje 0.42 1.77 -1.35 -0.42
Sun 20/09 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0.40 1.73 -1.33 -0.51

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.34 npxG and 1.85 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 3 hardest of 10 in PrvaLiga (Slovenia)
+0.03 xG vs league average
Over 10 league matches
Last 5
number 2 hardest of 10 in PrvaLiga (Slovenia)
+0.19 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.03 xG vs league average · over 10 matches · tied number 3 hardest of 10

  1. NK Olimpija Ljubljana Home +0.25
  2. NK Celje Home +0.35
  3. NK Aluminij Kidričevo Away −0.28
  4. NŠ Mura Home +0.23
  5. NK Maribor Away +0.38
  6. FC Koper Away +0.15
  7. Brinje Grosuplje Home −0.27
  8. Kalcer Radomlje Away −0.52
  9. NK Nafta Lendava 1903 Home −0.20
  10. NK Olimpija Ljubljana Away +0.25

Last 5

+0.19 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 2 hardest of 10

  1. NK Olimpija Ljubljana Home +0.25
  2. NK Celje Home +0.35
  3. NK Aluminij Kidričevo Away −0.28
  4. NŠ Mura Home +0.23
  5. NK Maribor Away +0.38

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

NK Bravo shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. NK Bravo take 11.9 shots a match (league 11.8) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #6 in PrvaLiga (Slovenia) for volume and #7 for quality. 65% of their shots come from inside the box (league 60%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.9 shots per match
#6/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 14.9
#2 NK Maribor 13.8
#3 NK Celje 12.1
#4 NŠ Mura 12.1
#5 FC Koper 12.0
#6 NK Bravo 11.9
#7 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 11.4
#8 Kalcer Radomlje 10.9
#9 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 10.0
#10 Brinje Grosuplje 8.8
League avg
11.8
Total
119 shots from 10 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#7/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 0.15
#2 Brinje Grosuplje 0.14
#3 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0.14
#4 NK Celje 0.12
#5 FC Koper 0.12
#6 Kalcer Radomlje 0.11
#7 NK Bravo 0.11
#8 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0.11
#9 NŠ Mura 0.10
#10 NK Maribor 0.10
League avg
0.12
Total
13.40 npxG from 119 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.6 shots per match
#9/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 NK Maribor 8.7
#2 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 9.6
#3 NK Celje 9.9
=4 Brinje Grosuplje 10.8
=4 NŠ Mura 10.8
#6 FC Koper 11.5
#7 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 12.1
#8 Kalcer Radomlje 12.8
#9 NK Bravo 14.6
#10 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 17.1
League avg
11.8
Total
146 shots allowed from 10 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#8/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 NK Maribor 0.10
#2 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 0.10
#3 NK Celje 0.11
#4 FC Koper 0.11
#5 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0.11
#6 NŠ Mura 0.12
#7 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0.12
#8 NK Bravo 0.13
#9 Kalcer Radomlje 0.15
#10 Brinje Grosuplje 0.16
League avg
0.12
Total
18.54 npxGA from 146 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

65% inside the box

League avg 60%

From 77 of 119 shots over 10 matches

Shots allowed, location

63% allowed inside the box

League avg 60%

From 92 of 146 shots allowed over 10 matches

How the shot figures are made →

NK Bravo home and away xG

NK Bravo per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 5
xG / match 1.42 1.54
xGA / match 2.03 1.80
xGD / match -0.61 -0.27
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.94 1.18

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every NK Bravo match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
10
xG / match
1.48
xGA / match
1.92
xGD / match
-0.44
Points
18 of 30
  1. Sun 20/09 NK Olimpija Ljubljana H xG 1.92 P xGA 1.73 xGD +0.19
  2. Sat 12/09 NK Celje H Against the chances xG 0.42 xGA 1.77 xGD -1.35
  3. Sat 05/09 NK Aluminij Kidričevo A xG 1.37 xGA 1.19 xGD +0.18
  4. Sat 29/08 NŠ Mura H xG 1.63 xGA 2.42 xGD -0.79
  5. Sun 23/08 NK Maribor A xG 0.97 xGA 1.55 xGD -0.58
  6. Sun 16/08 FC Koper A xG 1.60 xGA 2.12 xGD -0.52
  7. Sun 09/08 Brinje Grosuplje H xG 1.28 xGA 2.07 xGD -0.79
  8. Sun 02/08 Kalcer Radomlje A Against the chances xG 1.31 xGA 2.40 P xGD -1.09
  9. Sun 26/07 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 H xG 1.87 xGA 2.17 xGD -0.30
  10. Sat 18/07 NK Olimpija Ljubljana A Best underlying xG 2.44 xGA 1.76 xGD +0.68

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

NK Bravo in PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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