Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 17:00
6d 17h to kick-offNK Nafta Lendava 1903 – NK Bravo
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- 38%
- Draw
- 25%
- NK Bravo
- 37%
| NK Nafta Lendava 1903 | Draw | NK Bravo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.64 | 4.00 | 2.69 |
- Total goals
- 3.72
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74%
- Both teams to score
- 76%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 7 outcomes.
-
NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- Model
- 37.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 37.5%
- Probability gap
- +0.3 pp
- Edge
- −9.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.64
- Market odds
- 2.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.78
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.1%
-
Draw
- Model
- 25.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.5%
- Probability gap
- −1.5 pp
- Edge
- −15.1%
- Fair odds
- 4.00
- Market odds
- 3.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.20
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.1%
-
NK Bravo
- Model
- 37.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 36.0%
- Probability gap
- +1.2 pp
- Edge
- −7.0%
- Fair odds
- 2.69
- Market odds
- 2.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.82
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.1%
Outcomes with value
NK Bravo 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
NK Bravo to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
NK Bravo 2+ goals
Model 57.4% vs. bookmaker 42.3%, margin removed.
Match result
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model can't separate them
38% NK Nafta Lendava 1903 to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 8th
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903 attack v NK Bravo defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 2nd
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903 defence v NK Bravo attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.17 vs -0.48
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.87 – 1.85
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903 v NK Bravo
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Nafta Lendava 1903 | NK Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.76 · 1st | 1.48 · 5th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.70 · 7th | 1.92 · 9th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.05 · 5th | -0.44 · 8th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.37 · 5th | 1.06 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.17 | -0.48 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 27% of the model's distribution.
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903 clean sheet
- 13%
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 26%
- Both teams to score: no
- 24%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 9.6%
- 2:2
- 8.7%
- 2:1
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903 sample
- 11 matches
- NK Bravo sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Bravo
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.