NŠ Mura 1:6 NK Aluminij Kidričevo: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 15:00

Full time

Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

NŠ Mura Home 2.01 xG

NK Aluminij Kidričevo Away 1.89 xG

16 The chances were evenly matched

NŠ Mura were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 56%. NK Aluminij Kidričevo won 6–1. The biggest difference was NK Aluminij Kidričevo's attack: 1.89 xG against 0.94 projected (+0.95). NŠ Mura produced 2.01 xG against 1.75 projected (+0.26).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NŠ Mura: 56%
Draw: 27%
NK Aluminij Kidričevo: 17% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NŠ Mura 1.75 2.01 +0.26

NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0.94 1.89 +0.95

NK Aluminij Kidričevo produced 0.95 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NŠ Mura NK Aluminij Kidričevo

Shots: 14; 9
On target: 4; 6
Inside the box: 9; 6
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.21

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NŠ Mura

1.49 xG created 1.43 xGA

L 1.94 created, 1.29 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
L 1.24 created, 1.66 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
W 1.72 created, 1.48 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
L 1.06 created, 1.14 conceded against FC Koper
L 2.42 created, 1.63 conceded against NK Bravo
D 0.58 created, 1.38 conceded against NK Maribor

NK Aluminij Kidričevo

1.39 xG created 1.27 xGA

L 0.56 created, 2.12 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
D 1.58 created, 1.01 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
W 1.28 created, 1.02 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
W 3.53 created, 1.20 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
L 0.22 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Koper
D 1.19 created, 1.37 conceded against NK Bravo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NŠ Mura: 0 won · 2 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NŠ Mura against NK Aluminij Kidričevo before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
NŠ Mura to win	2.00	+11.1%	Lost
NŠ Mura 2+ goals	2.00	+7.7%	Lost
NK Aluminij Kidričevo at most 1 goal	1.40	+6.5%	Lost
NŠ Mura to score	1.22	+3.7%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.29	+1.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NŠ Mura	55.5%	44.4%	+11.1 pp	1.80
Draw	27.3%	26.9%	+0.4 pp	3.66
NK Aluminij Kidričevo	17.2%	28.7%	−11.5 pp	5.83

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NŠ Mura to score	84.8%	76.6%	+8.2 pp	1.18
NŠ Mura not to score	15.2%	23.4%	−8.2 pp	6.59
NK Aluminij Kidričevo to score	64.0%	66.3%	−2.2 pp	1.56
NK Aluminij Kidričevo not to score	36.0%	33.7%	+2.2 pp	2.78
Both teams to score	55.9%	53.7%	+2.3 pp	1.79
Both teams not to score	44.1%	46.3%	−2.3 pp	2.27
NŠ Mura 2+ goals	53.9%	46.3%	+7.5 pp	1.86
NŠ Mura at most 1 goal	46.1%	53.7%	−7.5 pp	2.17
NK Aluminij Kidričevo 2+ goals	23.9%	33.7%	−9.8 pp	4.18
NK Aluminij Kidričevo at most 1 goal	76.1%	66.3%	+9.8 pp	1.31
Over 1.5 goals	78.9%	73.1%	+5.8 pp	1.27
Under 1.5 goals	21.1%	26.9%	−5.8 pp	4.75
Over 2.5 goals	51.6%	50.0%	+1.6 pp	1.94
Under 2.5 goals	48.4%	50.0%	−1.6 pp	2.07

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NŠ Mura sample: 20 matches
NK Aluminij Kidričevo sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.