Thursday, 17/09/2026 at 17:30
Full timeFC Rostov 0:3 Dynamo Moscow
FC Rostov were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. Dynamo Moscow won 3–0.
The model against the result
- FC Rostov
- 36%
- Draw
- 30%
- Dynamo Moscow
- 33% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
0.77 xG created 1.31 xGA
- L 0.29 created, 0.76 conceded against FC Sochi
- D 0.72 created, 0.85 conceded against CSKA Moscow
- L 1.49 created, 1.37 conceded against Orenburg
- W 0.32 created, 1.25 conceded against Dinamo Makhachkala
- W 1.29 created, 1.76 conceded against Akron Togliatti
- L 0.51 created, 1.88 conceded against Zenit St. Petersburg
1.38 xG created 1.51 xGA
- D 2.46 created, 0.66 conceded against Pari Nizhny Novgorod
- L 1.43 created, 1.65 conceded against Rubin Kazan
- W 1.72 created, 0.98 conceded against FC Sochi
- D 0.44 created, 2.04 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
- W 1.31 created, 1.32 conceded against FK Krasnodar
- W 0.91 created, 2.40 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Rostov to win | 3.04 | +10.8% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.02 | +6.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Rostov | 36.4% | 31.2% | +5.2 pp | 2.74 |
| Draw | 30.2% | 28.9% | +1.3 pp | 3.31 |
| Dynamo Moscow | 33.4% | 39.9% | −6.5 pp | 3.00 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 47.3% | +5.5 pp | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.2% | 52.7% | −5.5 pp | 2.12 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Rostov sample
- 20 matches
- Dynamo Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.