Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 13:00
Full timeHibernian 1:2 Celtic
Celtic were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Celtic's attack: 1.15 xG against 1.88 projected (−0.73).
Goals
- 3' Owen Elding Hibernian · 0.21 xG chance 1–0
- 5' Jason Kerr (o.g.) Celtic 1–1
- 43' Camilo Durán Celtic · 0.07 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- Hibernian
- 20%
- Draw
- 26%
- Celtic
- 54% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Celtic produced 0.73 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 16
- On target
- 2
- 4
- Inside the box
- 10
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.53
- 1.16
- Set-piece xG
- 0.63
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.19 for Hibernian and 1.15 for Celtic.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 2.32 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Hibernian
- Celtic
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.38 xG created 1.41 xGA
- L 1.70 created, 0.82 conceded against Heart of Midlothian
- L 1.72 created, 2.49 conceded against St. Johnstone
- L 1.31 created, 1.95 conceded against Kilmarnock
- D 1.43 created, 0.77 conceded against Aberdeen
- L 0.77 created, 1.68 conceded against Dundee United
- L 1.35 created, 0.76 conceded against Falkirk FC
2.56 xG created 1.11 xGA
- W 2.47 created, 0.66 conceded against Aberdeen
- W 2.93 created, 1.74 conceded against St. Mirren
- W 2.22 created, 0.77 conceded against St. Johnstone
- L 0.71 created, 1.23 conceded against Rangers
- W 2.85 created, 1.05 conceded against Motherwell
- W 4.16 created, 1.20 conceded against Heart of Midlothian
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 qualified edges flagged2 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.50 | +17.3% | Lost |
| Celtic not to score | 8.00 | +5.2% | Lost |
| Celtic at most 1 goal | 2.50 | +5.1% | Lost |
| Hibernian 2+ goals | 3.25 | +3.1% | Lost |
| Hibernian to score | 1.44 | +2.0% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +1.4% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | +0.6% | Lost |
| Hibernian to win | 5.00 | +0.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian | 20.0% | 18.9% | +1.1 pp | 4.99 |
| Draw | 26.1% | 21.0% | +5.1 pp | 3.84 |
| Celtic | 53.9% | 60.1% | −6.2 pp | 1.86 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian to score | 70.6% | 64.5% | +6.1 pp | 1.42 |
| Hibernian not to score | 29.4% | 35.5% | −6.1 pp | 3.40 |
| Celtic to score | 86.8% | 88.1% | −1.2 pp | 1.15 |
| Celtic not to score | 13.2% | 11.9% | +1.2 pp | 7.60 |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | 57.7% | +5.1 pp | 1.59 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.2% | 42.3% | −5.1 pp | 2.69 |
| Hibernian 2+ goals | 31.7% | 29.1% | +2.6 pp | 3.15 |
| Hibernian at most 1 goal | 68.3% | 70.9% | −2.6 pp | 1.46 |
| Celtic 2+ goals | 58.0% | 62.5% | −4.5 pp | 1.73 |
| Celtic at most 1 goal | 42.0% | 37.5% | +4.5 pp | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | 81.1% | +2.9 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.0% | 18.9% | −2.9 pp | 6.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | 62.0% | −2.2 pp | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.3% | 38.0% | +2.2 pp | 2.48 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Hibernian sample
- 20 matches
- Celtic sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 59 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.