Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 16:00
13d 14h to kick-offHibernian – Falkirk FC
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Hibernian
- 40%
- Draw
- 32%
- Falkirk FC
- 28%
| Hibernian | Draw | Falkirk FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.50 | 3.14 | 3.55 |
- Total goals
- 2.44
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Hibernian
40% Hibernian to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 8th
- Hibernian attack v Falkirk FC defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 9th
- Hibernian defence v Falkirk FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.24 vs -0.73
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.34 – 1.11
- Hibernian v Falkirk FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Hibernian | Falkirk FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.75 · 3rd | 0.90 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.55 · 6th | 1.66 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.20 · 4th | -0.76 · 11th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.54 · 4th | 0.86 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.24 | -0.73 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Hibernian clean sheet
- 30%
- Hibernian 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.4%
- 2:1
- 10.2%
- 1:0
- 9.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Hibernian sample
- 20 matches
- Falkirk FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Hibernian
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Falkirk FC
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.