Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 16:00
6d 16h to kick-offFalkirk FC – Dundee FC
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Falkirk FC
- 45%
- Draw
- 30%
- Dundee FC
- 24%
| Falkirk FC | Draw | Dundee FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.20 | 3.30 | 4.13 |
- Total goals
- 2.56
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 5 outcomes.
-
Falkirk FC
- Model
- 45.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 44.3%
- Probability gap
- +1.1 pp
- Edge
- −4.6%
- Fair odds
- 2.20
- Market odds
- 2.10 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.31
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.4%
-
Draw
- Model
- 30.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.6%
- Probability gap
- +3.8 pp
- Edge
- +6.2%
- Fair odds
- 3.30
- Market odds
- 3.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.46
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.4%
-
Dundee FC
- Model
- 24.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 29.1%
- Probability gap
- −4.9 pp
- Edge
- −22.5%
- Fair odds
- 4.13
- Market odds
- 3.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.34
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.4%
Outcomes with value
Dundee FC at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Dundee FC not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Dundee FC at most 1 goal
Model 71.0% vs. bookmaker 64.5%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Falkirk FC
45% Falkirk FC to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 11th
- Falkirk FC attack v Dundee FC defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 11th
- Falkirk FC defence v Dundee FC attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.73 vs +0.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.49 – 1.07
- Falkirk FC v Dundee FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Falkirk FC | Dundee FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.90 · 11th | (better) 1.28 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 1.66 · 11th | (better) 1.56 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.76 · 11th | (better) -0.28 · 9th |
| xPts / match | 0.86 · 11th | (better) 1.24 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.73 | (better) +0.02 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Falkirk FC clean sheet
- 31%
- Falkirk FC 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.6%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 1:0
- 9.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Falkirk FC sample
- 20 matches
- Dundee FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Falkirk FC
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Dundee FC
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.