Cagliari 1:0 Lecce: xG & match report · Serie A

Monday, 07/09/2026 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · Serie A

Cagliari Home 1.61 xG · 20 shots

Lecce Away 0.50 xG · 10 shots

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

Cagliari were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Lecce's attack: 0.50 xG against 1.05 projected (−0.55).

Goals

29' Daniel Maldini Cagliari · 0.46 xG chance 1–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Cagliari: 44% What happened
Draw: 31%
Lecce: 25%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Cagliari 1.42 1.61 +0.19

Lecce 1.05 0.50 -0.55

Lecce produced 0.55 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Cagliari Lecce

Shots: 20; 10
On target: 9; 3
Inside the box: 12; 4
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.04
Open play xG: 0.77; 0.22
Set-piece xG: 0.58; 0.20
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.36 for Cagliari and 0.41 for Lecce.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 1.77 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Cagliari
Lecce
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Cagliari

1.34 xG created 1.69 xGA

D 1.07 created, 0.53 conceded against Bologna
L 1.47 created, 2.47 conceded against Udinese
W 1.32 created, 0.99 conceded against Torino
W 2.78 created, 1.74 conceded against Milan
W 0.94 created, 0.75 conceded against Parma
L 0.48 created, 3.67 conceded against Inter

Lecce

1.33 xG created 2.16 xGA

W 0.88 created, 2.23 conceded against Pisa
L 0.88 created, 2.29 conceded against Juventus
W 1.26 created, 2.45 conceded against Sassuolo
W 1.43 created, 0.68 conceded against Genoa
W 2.70 created, 2.05 conceded against Venezia
L 0.80 created, 3.27 conceded against Roma

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Cagliari: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Cagliari against Lecce before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	2.05	+13.3%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.38	+8.7%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.44	+8.3%	Lost
Lecce to win	4.10	+2.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Cagliari	43.9%	46.3%	−2.4 pp	2.28
Draw	31.2%	30.6%	+0.6 pp	3.21
Lecce	24.9%	23.1%	+1.8 pp	4.01

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.2%	45.3%	+9.9 pp	1.81
Both teams not to score	44.8%	54.7%	−9.9 pp	2.23
Over 1.5 goals	75.0%	65.6%	+9.4 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	25.0%	34.4%	−9.4 pp	4.00
Over 2.5 goals	45.8%	39.8%	+6.0 pp	2.18
Under 2.5 goals	54.2%	60.2%	−6.0 pp	1.84

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Cagliari sample: 20 matches
Lecce sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.