Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 15:00
6d 15h to kick-offGenoa – Fiorentina
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Genoa
- 31%
- Draw
- 34%
- Fiorentina
- 36%
| Genoa | Draw | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.28 | 2.94 | 2.82 |
- Total goals
- 2.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.
-
Genoa
- Model
- 30.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 31.0%
- Probability gap
- −0.5 pp
- Edge
- −8.4%
- Fair odds
- 3.28
- Market odds
- 3.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.44
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.6%
-
Draw
- Model
- 34.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 28.6%
- Probability gap
- +5.4 pp
- Edge
- +10.4%
- Fair odds
- 2.94
- Market odds
- 3.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.09
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.6%
-
Fiorentina
- Model
- 35.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 40.4%
- Probability gap
- −4.9 pp
- Edge
- −18.3%
- Fair odds
- 2.82
- Market odds
- 2.30 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.96
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.6%
Outcomes with value
Fiorentina not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Fiorentina at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Genoa at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Fiorentina not to score
Model 29.2% vs. bookmaker 25.0%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model can't separate them
36% Fiorentina to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 11th
- Fiorentina attack v Genoa defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 18th
- Fiorentina defence v Genoa attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.24 vs -0.49
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.05 – 1.14
- Genoa v Fiorentina
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Genoa | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.89 · 18th | (better) 1.72 · 6th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.33 · joint 7th | 1.33 · 9th |
| xGD / match | -0.44 · joint 12th | (better) +0.39 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 1.00 · 14th | (better) 1.69 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.49 | (better) +0.24 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- Fiorentina clean sheet
- 32%
- Fiorentina 2+ goals
- 32%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score: no
- 50%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.4%
- 0:0
- 11.4%
- 0:1
- 10.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Genoa sample
- 20 matches
- Fiorentina sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Genoa
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Fiorentina
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.