Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 15:00
Full timeParma 2:1 Genoa
A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 34%. Parma won 2–1. The biggest difference was Parma's attack: 0.53 xG against 1.09 projected (−0.56). Genoa produced 0.70 xG against 1.09 projected (−0.39).
Goals
- 38' David Romero Parma · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
- 70' Milutin Osmajić Genoa · 0.42 xG chance 1–1
- 80' Pontus Almqvist Parma · 0.12 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- Parma
- 33% What happened
- Draw
- 34%
- Genoa
- 33%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Parma produced 0.56 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 5
- 12
- On target
- 2
- 5
- Inside the box
- 3
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 0.33
- 0.51
- Set-piece xG
- 0.00
- 0.24
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.32 for Parma and 0.76 for Genoa.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
17 shots · 1.08 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Parma
- Genoa
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.74 xG created 1.82 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma to win | 3.20 | +5.4% | Won |
| Parma to score | 1.50 | +4.4% | Won |
| Draw | 3.00 | +2.5% | Lost |
| Parma 2+ goals | 3.40 | +2.4% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | +0.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 32.9% | 29.6% | +3.3 pp | 3.04 |
| Draw | 34.2% | 31.6% | +2.5 pp | 2.93 |
| Genoa | 32.9% | 38.7% | −5.8 pp | 3.04 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma to score | 69.6% | 62.5% | +7.1 pp | 1.44 |
| Parma not to score | 30.4% | 37.5% | −7.1 pp | 3.29 |
| Genoa to score | 69.6% | 68.7% | +0.8 pp | 1.44 |
| Genoa not to score | 30.4% | 31.3% | −0.8 pp | 3.29 |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 46.7% | +3.8 pp | 1.98 |
| Both teams not to score | 49.6% | 53.3% | −3.8 pp | 2.02 |
| Parma 2+ goals | 30.1% | 27.7% | +2.5 pp | 3.32 |
| Parma at most 1 goal | 69.9% | 72.3% | −2.5 pp | 1.43 |
| Genoa 2+ goals | 30.1% | 33.7% | −3.6 pp | 3.32 |
| Genoa at most 1 goal | 69.9% | 66.3% | +3.6 pp | 1.43 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.8% | 65.6% | +3.2 pp | 1.45 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 34.4% | −3.2 pp | 3.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.8% | 38.0% | −0.2 pp | 2.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62.2% | 62.0% | +0.2 pp | 1.61 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Parma sample
- 20 matches
- Genoa sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.