Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 12:30
Full timeFiorentina 1:1 Napoli
Napoli were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. It finished 1–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 23' Billy Gilmour Napoli · 0.08 xG chance 0–1
- 51' Álex Jiménez Fiorentina · 0.02 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Fiorentina
- 32%
- Draw
- 32% What happened
- Napoli
- 36%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 13
- On target
- 4
- 5
- Inside the box
- 10
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.11
- Open play xG
- 0.84
- 1.28
- Set-piece xG
- 0.07
- 0.15
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.94 for Fiorentina and 1.45 for Napoli.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 2.34 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Fiorentina
- Napoli
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.46 xG created 1.43 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +12.5% | Won |
| Napoli at most 1 goal | 1.73 | +11.0% | Won |
| Draw | 3.40 | +10.3% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.00 | +6.2% | Lost |
| Napoli not to score | 4.00 | +4.4% | Lost |
| Fiorentina to win | 3.25 | +3.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 31.7% | 29.1% | +2.6 pp | 3.15 |
| Draw | 32.4% | 27.8% | +4.6 pp | 3.08 |
| Napoli | 35.8% | 43.0% | −7.2 pp | 2.79 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina to score | 71.4% | 70.9% | +0.5 pp | 1.40 |
| Fiorentina not to score | 28.6% | 29.1% | −0.5 pp | 3.50 |
| Napoli to score | 73.9% | 76.6% | −2.7 pp | 1.35 |
| Napoli not to score | 26.1% | 23.4% | +2.7 pp | 3.83 |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 54.7% | +0.0 pp | 1.83 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.3% | 45.3% | −0.0 pp | 2.21 |
| Fiorentina 2+ goals | 32.7% | 35.5% | −2.8 pp | 3.06 |
| Fiorentina at most 1 goal | 67.3% | 64.5% | +2.8 pp | 1.49 |
| Napoli 2+ goals | 35.7% | 46.3% | −10.6 pp | 2.80 |
| Napoli at most 1 goal | 64.3% | 53.7% | +10.6 pp | 1.56 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.4% | 76.2% | −2.8 pp | 1.36 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 23.8% | +2.8 pp | 3.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.7% | 52.6% | −8.9 pp | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.3% | 47.4% | +8.9 pp | 1.78 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Fiorentina sample
- 20 matches
- Napoli sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.