Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 15:00
7d 14h to kick-offLazio – Monza
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Lazio
- 36%
- Draw
- 33%
- Monza
- 32%
| Lazio | Draw | Monza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.81 | 3.06 | 3.16 |
- Total goals
- 2.36
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 9 outcomes.
-
Lazio
- Model
- 35.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 57.3%
- Probability gap
- −21.6 pp
- Edge
- −41.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.81
- Market odds
- 1.65 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.95
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.8%
-
Draw
- Model
- 32.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.5%
- Probability gap
- +7.2 pp
- Edge
- +21.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.06
- Market odds
- 3.70 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.21
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.8%
-
Monza
- Model
- 31.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 17.2%
- Probability gap
- +14.5 pp
- Edge
- +74.1%
- Fair odds
- 3.16
- Market odds
- 5.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.32
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.8%
Outcomes with value
Monza to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Lazio not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Lazio at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Monza 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Monza to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Monza to win
Model 31.7% vs. bookmaker 17.2%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: Monza to win
What the model's reading is made of
- The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches. Everything behind this edge rests on that, which is too little to set out as a reason.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | Lazio | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | +0.18 | +0.73 |
| Goals scored minus expected | +0.27 | -0.95 |
| Points won minus expected | +4.90 | -5.45 |
| npxG per shot | 0.11 | 0.11 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model can't separate them
36% Lazio to win
- Attack
- 14th vs 8th
- Lazio attack v Monza defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 8th
- Lazio defence v Monza attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.18 vs +0.73
- xGD per match, last 5
- Projected goals
- 1.22 – 1.14
- Lazio v Monza
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lazio | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.55 · 9th | (better) 1.79 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.24 · 6th | (better) 1.06 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | +0.30 · 9th | (better) +0.73 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.62 · 8th | (better) 1.89 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.18 | (better) +0.73 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Lazio clean sheet
- 29%
- Lazio 2+ goals
- 35%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.8%
- 0:0
- 9.8%
- 2:1
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lazio sample
- 20 matches
- Monza sample
- 5 matches
- Home xG sample · Lazio
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Monza
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Warnings
- Monza has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.