Roma xG 2026/2027: expected goals, xGA & xPts per match

Roma xG and xGA per match

Attack

2.56 xG per match

Attack (xG per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank	Club	xG per match
#1	Inter	2.90
#2	Roma	2.56
#3	Como	1.89
#4	Monza	1.79
#5	Sassuolo	1.73
#6	Fiorentina	1.72
#7	Milan	1.58
#8	Juventus	1.55
#9	Lazio	1.55
#10	Frosinone	1.51
#11	Venezia	1.49
#12	Napoli	1.44
#13	Udinese	1.40
#14	Bologna	1.18
#15	Cagliari	1.09
#16	Lecce	1.06
#17	Torino	1.03
#18	Genoa	0.89
#19	Atalanta	0.81
#20	Parma	0.68

League avg: 1.49
Total: 12.82 5 matches

Defence

1.11 xGA per match

#4/20

Defence (xGA per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank	Club	xGA per match
#1	Juventus	0.48
#2	Bologna	0.95
#3	Monza	1.06
#4	Roma	1.11
#5	Milan	1.18
#6	Lazio	1.24
=7	Genoa	1.33
=7	Sassuolo	1.33
#9	Fiorentina	1.33
#10	Inter	1.34
#11	Napoli	1.40
#12	Como	1.53
#13	Parma	1.58
#14	Torino	1.69
#15	Cagliari	1.76
#16	Udinese	1.84
#17	Atalanta	1.87
#18	Frosinone	2.10
#19	Venezia	2.35
#20	Lecce	2.38

League avg: 1.49
Total: 5.57 5 matches

xG difference

+1.45 xGD per match

#2/20

xG difference (xGD per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank	Club	xGD per match
#1	Inter	+1.55
#2	Roma	+1.45
#3	Juventus	+1.07
#4	Monza	+0.73
#5	Sassuolo	+0.41
#6	Milan	+0.40
#7	Fiorentina	+0.39
#8	Como	+0.36
#9	Lazio	+0.30
#10	Bologna	+0.24
#11	Napoli	+0.03
=12	Genoa	-0.44
=12	Udinese	-0.44
#14	Frosinone	-0.59
#15	Torino	-0.66
#16	Cagliari	-0.66
#17	Venezia	-0.87
#18	Parma	-0.90
#19	Atalanta	-1.06
#20	Lecce	-1.32

League avg: 0.00
Total: +7.25 5 matches

Expected points Model

2.23 xPts per match

#1/20

Expected points (xPts per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank	Club	xPts per match
#1	Roma	2.23
#2	Juventus	2.23
#3	Inter	2.21
#4	Monza	1.89
#5	Fiorentina	1.69
#6	Milan	1.63
#7	Sassuolo	1.63
#8	Lazio	1.62
#9	Como	1.60
#10	Bologna	1.55
#11	Napoli	1.50
#12	Udinese	1.13
#13	Cagliari	1.11
#14	Genoa	1.00
#15	Frosinone	0.98
#16	Venezia	0.93
#17	Torino	0.88
#18	Parma	0.70
#19	Atalanta	0.67
#20	Lecce	0.60

League avg: 1.39
Total: 11.15 vs 13 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Roma's underlying numbers are among the best in Serie A. They rank #2 for xG difference at +1.45 per match, driven by both elite shot volume and the league's best chance quality. Their 14 goals are 1.18 above 12.82 xG, while 13 points are 1.85 above 11.15 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected

Goals vs xG

14 12.82 +1.18 scored 1.18 more than xG within normal variance

Goals conceded vs xGA

3 5.57 -2.57 conceded 2.57 fewer than xGA outside normal variance

Points vs xPts Model

13 11.15 +1.85 1.85 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Roma are 1.18 goals above their xG after 5 matches. The gap was widest at +1.66, against Lecce on Mon 31/08.

Goals: 14
xG: 12.82
Gap: +1.18

Roma: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date	Opponent	Goals	xG	Match gap	Running gap
Mon 24/08	Fiorentina	4	3.07	+0.93	+0.93
Mon 31/08	Lecce	4	3.27	+0.73	+1.66
Sat 05/09	Atalanta	2	2.97	-0.97	+0.69
Mon 14/09	Torino	2	1.85	+0.15	+0.84
Sat 19/09	Inter	2	1.66	+0.34	+1.18

Conceded minus xGA, match by match

Roma have conceded 2.57 fewer than their xGA after 5 matches.

Conceded: 3
xGA: 5.57
Gap: -2.57

Roma: Goals conceded vs xGA, the gap after every match with xG
Date	Opponent	Conceded	xGA	Match gap	Running gap
Mon 24/08	Fiorentina	0	0.35	-0.35	-0.35
Mon 31/08	Lecce	0	0.80	-0.80	-1.15
Sat 05/09	Atalanta	1	0.70	+0.30	-0.85
Mon 14/09	Torino	0	0.86	-0.86	-1.71
Sat 19/09	Inter	2	2.86	-0.86	-2.57

Points minus xPts, match by match

Roma are 1.85 points above their xPts after 5 matches.

Points: 13
xPts: 11.15
Gap: +1.85

Roma: Points vs xPts, the gap after every match with xG
Date	Opponent	Points	xPts	Match gap	Running gap
Mon 24/08	Fiorentina	3	2.87	+0.13	+0.13
Mon 31/08	Lecce	3	2.75	+0.25	+0.38
Sat 05/09	Atalanta	3	2.72	+0.28	+0.66
Mon 14/09	Torino	3	2.13	+0.87	+1.53
Sat 19/09	Inter	1	0.68	+0.32	+1.85

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Roma xG trend

Current form +1.61 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 5 matches. The only negative was against Inter on Sat 19/09 (-0.88).

npxG · last 5: 2.64
npxGA · last 5: 1.02

Roma: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date	Opponent	npxG	npxGA	npxGD	Avg so far
Mon 24/08	Fiorentina	2.83	0.28	+2.55	+2.55
Mon 31/08	Lecce	3.41	0.74	+2.67	+2.61
Sat 05/09	Atalanta	3.24	0.77	+2.47	+2.56
Mon 14/09	Torino	2.01	0.76	+1.25	+2.24
Sat 19/09	Inter	1.69	2.57	-0.88	+1.61

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.64 npxG and 1.02 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far: tied number 12 hardest of 20 in Serie A; −0.02 xG vs league average; Over 5 league matches

Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.02 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 12 hardest of 20

Inter Home +0.75
Torino Away −0.25
Atalanta Home −0.06
Lecce Away −0.58
Fiorentina Home +0.03

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Roma shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. Roma take 20.6 shots a match (league 14.6) at 0.13 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #3 in Serie A for volume and #1 for quality. 73% of their shots come from inside the box (league 66%), and set pieces produce 8% of their npxG (league 24%).

Attack

Shot volume

20.6 shots per match

#3/20

Shot volume (shots per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank	Club	shots per match
#1	Como	23.4
#2	Inter	23.2
#3	Roma	20.6
#4	Juventus	17.6
#5	Sassuolo	17.2
=6	Fiorentina	16.8
=6	Frosinone	16.8
#8	Monza	14.4
#9	Udinese	14.2
#10	Venezia	14.0
#11	Napoli	13.8
#12	Bologna	13.4
=13	Lazio	12.8
=13	Milan	12.8
=15	Atalanta	11.8
=15	Genoa	11.8
#17	Cagliari	10.8
#18	Torino	9.4
#19	Lecce	8.4
#20	Parma	8.2

League avg: 14.6
Total: 103 shots from 5 matches

Chance quality

0.13 npxG per shot

#1/20

Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Serie A, best first
Rank	Club	npxG per shot
#1	Roma	0.13
#2	Inter	0.12
#3	Monza	0.11
#4	Napoli	0.11
#5	Lecce	0.11
#6	Milan	0.11
#7	Lazio	0.11
#8	Venezia	0.10
#9	Fiorentina	0.10
#10	Torino	0.09
#11	Sassuolo	0.09
#12	Bologna	0.09
#13	Juventus	0.09
#14	Udinese	0.09
#15	Frosinone	0.09
#16	Como	0.08
#17	Parma	0.08
#18	Cagliari	0.08
#19	Genoa	0.06
#20	Atalanta	0.06

League avg: 0.10
Total: 13.18 npxG from 103 shots

Defence

Shots allowed

9.2 shots per match

#3/20

Shots allowed (shots per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank	Club	shots per match
#1	Juventus	7.8
#2	Milan	9.0
#3	Roma	9.2
#4	Inter	11.4
=5	Bologna	11.8
=5	Fiorentina	11.8
=5	Monza	11.8
#8	Lazio	13.0
#9	Venezia	14.4
#10	Como	15.0
#11	Torino	15.4
=12	Genoa	15.8
=12	Sassuolo	15.8
=14	Lecce	16.6
=14	Napoli	16.6
#16	Udinese	17.2
#17	Parma	18.4
#18	Atalanta	19.2
#19	Cagliari	20.4
#20	Frosinone	20.8

League avg: 14.6
Total: 46 shots allowed from 5 matches

Chance quality allowed

0.11 npxGA per shot

#15/20

Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Serie A, best first
Rank	Club	npxGA per shot
#1	Juventus	0.06
#2	Sassuolo	0.07
#3	Napoli	0.07
#4	Genoa	0.08
#5	Cagliari	0.08
#6	Bologna	0.08
#7	Lazio	0.08
#8	Frosinone	0.09
#9	Torino	0.09
#10	Como	0.09
#11	Monza	0.09
#12	Parma	0.09
#13	Atalanta	0.09
#14	Udinese	0.11
#15	Roma	0.11
#16	Inter	0.11
#17	Fiorentina	0.11
#18	Milan	0.13
#19	Lecce	0.14
#20	Venezia	0.15

League avg: 0.10
Total: 5.12 npxGA from 46 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

73% inside the box

League avg 66%

From 75 of 103 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

59% allowed inside the box

League avg 66%

From 27 of 46 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

92% open play · 8% set pieces

League avg 24% set pieces

From 1.1 of 13.2 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

59% open play · 41% set pieces

League avg 24% set pieces

From 2.1 of 5.1 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Roma home and away xG

Roma per-match figures at home and away
Measure	Home	Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches	3	2
xG / match	2.57	2.56
xGA / match	1.30	0.83
xGD / match	+1.26	+1.73
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →	2.09	2.44

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Roma match by xG

Window

Season Last 10 Last 5

Venue

All Home Away

Sort

Date xGD

This season

Matches: 5
xG / match: 2.56
xGA / match: 1.11
xGD / match: +1.45
Points: 13 of 15

Date Opponent Score xG Chances xGA xGD xPts Model

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.27. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Roma in Serie A

Attack

xG / match #2 of 20
Shots / match #3 of 20
Chance quality #1 of 20
Home xG #2 of 20
Away xG #5 of 20

Defence

xGA / match #4 of 20
Shots allowed #3 of 20
Chance quality allowed #15 of 20

Overall

About the data

xG data: Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics: xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics: xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

Roma expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Roma xG and xGA per match

What the xG says

Actual vs expected

Goals minus xG, match by match

Conceded minus xGA, match by match

Points minus xPts, match by match

Roma xG trend

Strength of schedule

Roma shots and chance quality

Attack

Defence

Shot profile

Roma home and away xG

Every Roma match by xG

Roma in Serie A

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data