xgEdge

Expected goals

Roma expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Serie A · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

Roma's attacking and defensive expected goals in Serie A 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Roma xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.56 xG per match
#2/20
Attack (xG per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Inter 2.90
#2 Roma 2.56
#3 Como 1.89
#4 Monza 1.79
#5 Sassuolo 1.73
#6 Fiorentina 1.72
#7 Milan 1.58
#8 Juventus 1.55
#9 Lazio 1.55
#10 Frosinone 1.51
#11 Venezia 1.49
#12 Napoli 1.44
#13 Udinese 1.40
#14 Bologna 1.18
#15 Cagliari 1.09
#16 Lecce 1.06
#17 Torino 1.03
#18 Genoa 0.89
#19 Atalanta 0.81
#20 Parma 0.68
League avg
1.49
Total
12.82 5 matches
Defence
1.11 xGA per match
#4/20
Defence (xGA per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Juventus 0.48
#2 Bologna 0.95
#3 Monza 1.06
#4 Roma 1.11
#5 Milan 1.18
#6 Lazio 1.24
=7 Genoa 1.33
=7 Sassuolo 1.33
#9 Fiorentina 1.33
#10 Inter 1.34
#11 Napoli 1.40
#12 Como 1.53
#13 Parma 1.58
#14 Torino 1.69
#15 Cagliari 1.76
#16 Udinese 1.84
#17 Atalanta 1.87
#18 Frosinone 2.10
#19 Venezia 2.35
#20 Lecce 2.38
League avg
1.49
Total
5.57 5 matches
xG difference
+1.45 xGD per match
#2/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Inter +1.55
#2 Roma +1.45
#3 Juventus +1.07
#4 Monza +0.73
#5 Sassuolo +0.41
#6 Milan +0.40
#7 Fiorentina +0.39
#8 Como +0.36
#9 Lazio +0.30
#10 Bologna +0.24
#11 Napoli +0.03
=12 Genoa -0.44
=12 Udinese -0.44
#14 Frosinone -0.59
#15 Torino -0.66
#16 Cagliari -0.66
#17 Venezia -0.87
#18 Parma -0.90
#19 Atalanta -1.06
#20 Lecce -1.32
League avg
0.00
Total
+7.25 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.23 xPts per match
#1/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Roma 2.23
#2 Juventus 2.23
#3 Inter 2.21
#4 Monza 1.89
#5 Fiorentina 1.69
#6 Milan 1.63
#7 Sassuolo 1.63
#8 Lazio 1.62
#9 Como 1.60
#10 Bologna 1.55
#11 Napoli 1.50
#12 Udinese 1.13
#13 Cagliari 1.11
#14 Genoa 1.00
#15 Frosinone 0.98
#16 Venezia 0.93
#17 Torino 0.88
#18 Parma 0.70
#19 Atalanta 0.67
#20 Lecce 0.60
League avg
1.39
Total
11.15 vs 13 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Roma's underlying numbers are among the best in Serie A. They rank #2 for xG difference at +1.45 per match, driven by both elite shot volume and the league's best chance quality. Their 14 goals are 1.18 above 12.82 xG, while 13 points are 1.85 above 11.15 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
14 12.82 +1.18 scored 1.18 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
3 5.57 -2.57 conceded 2.57 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
13 11.15 +1.85 1.85 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Roma are 1.18 goals above their xG after 5 matches. The gap was widest at +1.66, against Lecce on Mon 31/08.

Goals
14
xG
12.82
Gap
+1.18
Mon 24/08 Mon 31/08 Sat 05/09 Mon 14/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.93 +1.66 +0.69 +0.84 +1.18 +0.93 +0.73 -0.97 +0.15 +0.34 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Roma: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Mon 24/08 Fiorentina 4 3.07 +0.93 +0.93
Mon 31/08 Lecce 4 3.27 +0.73 +1.66
Sat 05/09 Atalanta 2 2.97 -0.97 +0.69
Mon 14/09 Torino 2 1.85 +0.15 +0.84
Sat 19/09 Inter 2 1.66 +0.34 +1.18

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Roma xG trend

Current form +1.61 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 5 matches. The only negative was against Inter on Sat 19/09 (-0.88).

npxG · last 5
2.64
npxGA · last 5
1.02
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +2.55 Mon 24/08 +2.67 Mon 31/08 +2.47 Sat 05/09 +1.25 Mon 14/09 -0.88 Sat 19/09 +1.61 season avg
Roma: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Mon 24/08 Fiorentina 2.83 0.28 +2.55 +2.55
Mon 31/08 Lecce 3.41 0.74 +2.67 +2.61
Sat 05/09 Atalanta 3.24 0.77 +2.47 +2.56
Mon 14/09 Torino 2.01 0.76 +1.25 +2.24
Sat 19/09 Inter 1.69 2.57 -0.88 +1.61

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.64 npxG and 1.02 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 12 hardest of 20 in Serie A
−0.02 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.02 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 12 hardest of 20

  1. Inter Home +0.75
  2. Torino Away −0.25
  3. Atalanta Home −0.06
  4. Lecce Away −0.58
  5. Fiorentina Home +0.03

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Roma shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. Roma take 20.6 shots a match (league 14.6) at 0.13 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #3 in Serie A for volume and #1 for quality. 73% of their shots come from inside the box (league 66%), and set pieces produce 8% of their npxG (league 24%).

Attack

Shot volume
20.6 shots per match
#3/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Como 23.4
#2 Inter 23.2
#3 Roma 20.6
#4 Juventus 17.6
#5 Sassuolo 17.2
=6 Fiorentina 16.8
=6 Frosinone 16.8
#8 Monza 14.4
#9 Udinese 14.2
#10 Venezia 14.0
#11 Napoli 13.8
#12 Bologna 13.4
=13 Lazio 12.8
=13 Milan 12.8
=15 Atalanta 11.8
=15 Genoa 11.8
#17 Cagliari 10.8
#18 Torino 9.4
#19 Lecce 8.4
#20 Parma 8.2
League avg
14.6
Total
103 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.13 npxG per shot
#1/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Roma 0.13
#2 Inter 0.12
#3 Monza 0.11
#4 Napoli 0.11
#5 Lecce 0.11
#6 Milan 0.11
#7 Lazio 0.11
#8 Venezia 0.10
#9 Fiorentina 0.10
#10 Torino 0.09
#11 Sassuolo 0.09
#12 Bologna 0.09
#13 Juventus 0.09
#14 Udinese 0.09
#15 Frosinone 0.09
#16 Como 0.08
#17 Parma 0.08
#18 Cagliari 0.08
#19 Genoa 0.06
#20 Atalanta 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
13.18 npxG from 103 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
9.2 shots per match
#3/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Juventus 7.8
#2 Milan 9.0
#3 Roma 9.2
#4 Inter 11.4
=5 Bologna 11.8
=5 Fiorentina 11.8
=5 Monza 11.8
#8 Lazio 13.0
#9 Venezia 14.4
#10 Como 15.0
#11 Torino 15.4
=12 Genoa 15.8
=12 Sassuolo 15.8
=14 Lecce 16.6
=14 Napoli 16.6
#16 Udinese 17.2
#17 Parma 18.4
#18 Atalanta 19.2
#19 Cagliari 20.4
#20 Frosinone 20.8
League avg
14.6
Total
46 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#15/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Juventus 0.06
#2 Sassuolo 0.07
#3 Napoli 0.07
#4 Genoa 0.08
#5 Cagliari 0.08
#6 Bologna 0.08
#7 Lazio 0.08
#8 Frosinone 0.09
#9 Torino 0.09
#10 Como 0.09
#11 Monza 0.09
#12 Parma 0.09
#13 Atalanta 0.09
#14 Udinese 0.11
#15 Roma 0.11
#16 Inter 0.11
#17 Fiorentina 0.11
#18 Milan 0.13
#19 Lecce 0.14
#20 Venezia 0.15
League avg
0.10
Total
5.12 npxGA from 46 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

73% inside the box

League avg 66%

From 75 of 103 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

59% allowed inside the box

League avg 66%

From 27 of 46 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

92% open play · 8% set pieces

League avg 24% set pieces

From 1.1 of 13.2 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

59% open play · 41% set pieces

League avg 24% set pieces

From 2.1 of 5.1 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Roma home and away xG

Roma per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches 3 2
xG / match 2.57 2.56
xGA / match 1.30 0.83
xGD / match +1.26 +1.73
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.09 2.44

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Roma match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
2
xG / match
2.56
xGA / match
0.83
xGD / match
+1.73
Points
6 of 6
  1. Mon 14/09 Torino A xG 1.85 xGA 0.86 xGD +0.99
  2. Mon 31/08 Lecce A xG 3.27 xGA 0.80 xGD +2.47

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.27. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Roma in Serie A

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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