Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeAmed Sportif Faaliyetler 3:2 Beşiktaş
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Beşiktaş's attack: 2.04 xG against 1.16 projected (+0.88). Amed Sportif Faaliyetler produced 1.54 xG against 1.26 projected (+0.28).
Goals
- 13' Gift Orban Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.01 xG chance 1–0
- 22' Dia Saba Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.02 xG chance 2–0
- 55' Dušan Vlahović Beşiktaş · 0.48 xG chance 2–1
- 59' Furkan Soyalp Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.33 xG chance 3–1
- 90' Orkun Kökçü (pen.) Beşiktaş · 0.82 xG chance 3–2
The model against the result
- Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
- 37% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Beşiktaş
- 31%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Beşiktaş produced 0.88 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 21
- On target
- 8
- 7
- Inside the box
- 4
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 1.48
- 0.40
- Set-piece xG
- 0.00
- 0.95
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.50 for Amed Sportif Faaliyetler and 1.37 for Beşiktaş.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
31 shots · 3.65 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
- Beşiktaş
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.03 xG created 0.78 xGA
1.81 xG created 0.88 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amed Sportif Faaliyetler to win | 4.00 | +46.6% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | +24.9% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.70 | +19.3% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.50 | +16.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amed Sportif Faaliyetler | 36.6% | 23.2% | +13.4 pp | 2.73 |
| Draw | 32.2% | 25.1% | +7.1 pp | 3.10 |
| Beşiktaş | 31.1% | 51.6% | −20.5 pp | 3.21 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 57.7% | −2.4 pp | 1.81 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.7% | 42.3% | +2.4 pp | 2.23 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | 79.2% | −5.2 pp | 1.35 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.0% | 20.8% | +5.2 pp | 3.85 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 58.2% | −13.7 pp | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.5% | 41.8% | +13.7 pp | 1.80 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Amed Sportif Faaliyetler sample
- 5 matches
- Beşiktaş sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Warnings
- Amed Sportif Faaliyetler has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.