Beşiktaş 3:0 Erzurumspor FK: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Süper Lig

Beşiktaş Home 2.29 xG · 21 shots

Erzurumspor FK Away 0.50 xG · 8 shots

30 The scoreline reflected the chances

Beşiktaş were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Beşiktaş's attack: 2.29 xG against 1.65 projected (+0.64). Erzurumspor FK produced 0.50 xG against 0.75 projected (−0.25).

Goals

21' Emirhan Topçu Beşiktaş · 0.15 xG chance 1–0
27' Leandro Trossard Beşiktaş · 0.29 xG chance 2–0
81' İlhan Fakılı Beşiktaş · 0.32 xG chance 3–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Beşiktaş: 58% What happened
Draw: 28%
Erzurumspor FK: 14%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Beşiktaş 1.65 2.29 +0.64

Erzurumspor FK 0.75 0.50 -0.25

Beşiktaş produced 0.64 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Beşiktaş Erzurumspor FK

Shots: 21; 8
On target: 7; 0
Inside the box: 16; 4
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.05
Open play xG: 1.80; 0.12
Set-piece xG: 0.53; 0.27
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.35 for Beşiktaş and 0.41 for Erzurumspor FK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.72 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Beşiktaş
Erzurumspor FK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Beşiktaş

1.80 xG created 0.91 xGA

L 2.22 created, 0.69 conceded against Trabzonspor
D 1.82 created, 2.87 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
W 1.28 created, 0.09 conceded against Eyüpspor
L 0.74 created, 0.54 conceded against Alanyaspor
W 2.97 created, 0.67 conceded against Çorum FK
W 1.75 created, 0.59 conceded against Fenerbahçe

Erzurumspor FK

0.70 xG created 1.72 xGA

L 0.23 created, 1.50 conceded against Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
L 0.48 created, 3.08 conceded against Galatasaray
D 0.86 created, 0.75 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
W 1.24 created, 1.56 conceded against Konyaspor

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged0 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Beşiktaş against Erzurumspor FK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Beşiktaş not to score	10.00	+66.7%	Lost
Draw	5.75	+59.6%	Lost
Beşiktaş at most 1 goal	3.25	+59.6%	Lost
Erzurumspor FK to win	11.00	+51.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.40	+34.3%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+33.0%	Lost
Erzurumspor FK to score	1.80	+0.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Beşiktaş	58.4%	75.6%	−17.1 pp	1.71
Draw	27.8%	16.1%	+11.7 pp	3.60
Erzurumspor FK	13.8%	8.4%	+5.4 pp	7.24

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Beşiktaş to score	83.3%	90.4%	−7.1 pp	1.20
Beşiktaş not to score	16.7%	9.6%	+7.1 pp	6.00
Erzurumspor FK to score	55.7%	51.5%	+4.3 pp	1.79
Erzurumspor FK not to score	44.3%	48.5%	−4.3 pp	2.26
Both teams to score	48.1%	48.5%	−0.4 pp	2.08
Both teams not to score	51.9%	51.5%	+0.4 pp	1.93
Beşiktaş 2+ goals	50.9%	70.9%	−20.0 pp	1.96
Beşiktaş at most 1 goal	49.1%	29.1%	+20.0 pp	2.04
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals	16.6%	18.9%	−2.4 pp	6.04
Erzurumspor FK at most 1 goal	83.4%	81.1%	+2.4 pp	1.20
Over 1.5 goals	73.4%	81.1%	−7.7 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.6%	18.9%	+7.7 pp	3.76
Over 2.5 goals	44.0%	61.0%	−17.0 pp	2.27
Under 2.5 goals	56.0%	39.0%	+17.0 pp	1.79

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Beşiktaş sample: 20 matches
Erzurumspor FK sample: 4 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Erzurumspor FK has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.