Çorum FK 1:2 Alanyaspor: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Çorum FK Home 1.11 xG · 12 shots

Alanyaspor Away 1.18 xG · 9 shots

12 The chances were evenly matched

Çorum FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. Alanyaspor won 2–1. The biggest difference was Çorum FK's attack: 1.11 xG against 1.38 projected (−0.27).

Goals

67' Gaius Makouta Alanyaspor · 0.02 xG chance 0–1
76' Jesús Ramírez Çorum FK · 0.20 xG chance 1–1
78' Arda Usluoğlu Alanyaspor · 0.49 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Çorum FK: 44%
Draw: 32%
Alanyaspor: 25% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Çorum FK 1.38 1.11 -0.27

Alanyaspor 1.01 1.18 +0.17

Çorum FK produced 0.27 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Çorum FK Alanyaspor

Shots: 12; 9
On target: 5; 5
Inside the box: 7; 6
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.13
Open play xG: 0.92; 1.15
Set-piece xG: 0.21; 0.03
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.16 for Çorum FK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 2.31 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Çorum FK
Alanyaspor
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Çorum FK

1.34 xG created 1.63 xGA

D 0.61 created, 2.90 conceded against Galatasaray
L 1.11 created, 0.32 conceded against Kasımpaşa
L 0.67 created, 2.97 conceded against Beşiktaş
W 2.58 created, 0.73 conceded against Eyüpspor
W 1.73 created, 1.23 conceded against Samsunspor

Alanyaspor

1.16 xG created 1.39 xGA

L 0.74 created, 1.78 conceded against Fatih Karagümrük
D 1.25 created, 1.28 conceded against Gaziantep FK
W 0.54 created, 0.74 conceded against Beşiktaş
L 0.66 created, 1.48 conceded against Eyüpspor
W 2.07 created, 1.28 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
D 1.72 created, 1.79 conceded against Göztepe

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Çorum FK against Alanyaspor before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	1.80	+2.1%	Lost
Draw	3.20	+1.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Çorum FK	43.7%	44.3%	−0.6 pp	2.29
Draw	31.7%	29.1%	+2.6 pp	3.15
Alanyaspor	24.6%	26.6%	−2.0 pp	4.07

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Çorum FK to score	77.5%	75.0%	+2.5 pp	1.29
Çorum FK not to score	22.5%	25.0%	−2.5 pp	4.45
Alanyaspor to score	66.2%	64.5%	+1.7 pp	1.51
Alanyaspor not to score	33.8%	35.5%	−1.7 pp	2.96
Both teams to score	53.2%	50.0%	+3.2 pp	1.88
Both teams not to score	46.8%	50.0%	−3.2 pp	2.14
Çorum FK 2+ goals	41.0%	42.3%	−1.3 pp	2.44
Çorum FK at most 1 goal	59.0%	57.7%	+1.3 pp	1.70
Alanyaspor 2+ goals	26.6%	29.1%	−2.5 pp	3.77
Alanyaspor at most 1 goal	73.4%	70.9%	+2.5 pp	1.36
Over 1.5 goals	73.0%	72.3%	+0.7 pp	1.37
Under 1.5 goals	27.0%	27.7%	−0.7 pp	3.71
Over 2.5 goals	43.3%	47.4%	−4.1 pp	2.31
Under 2.5 goals	56.7%	52.6%	+4.1 pp	1.76

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Çorum FK sample: 5 matches
Alanyaspor sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Çorum FK has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.