Çorum FK 3:0 Eyüpspor: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 16:00

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Match report · Süper Lig

Çorum FK Home 2.58 xG · 19 shots

Eyüpspor Away 0.73 xG · 8 shots

30 The scoreline reflected the chances

Çorum FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Çorum FK's attack: 2.58 xG against 1.36 projected (+1.22).

Goals

6' Alexandros Kyziridis Çorum FK · 0.49 xG chance 1–0
27' Andrei Borza Çorum FK · 0.08 xG chance 2–0
88' Ermin Mahmić Çorum FK · 0.09 xG chance 3–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Çorum FK: 48% What happened
Draw: 32%
Eyüpspor: 20%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Çorum FK 1.36 2.58 +1.22

Eyüpspor 0.85 0.73 -0.12

Çorum FK produced 1.22 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Çorum FK Eyüpspor

Shots: 19; 8
On target: 9; 4
Inside the box: 12; 7
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.09
Open play xG: 1.74; 0.63
Set-piece xG: 0.07; 0.05
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.85 for Çorum FK and 0.66 for Eyüpspor.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 2.49 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Çorum FK
Eyüpspor
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Çorum FK

0.80 xG created 2.06 xGA

D 0.61 created, 2.90 conceded against Galatasaray
L 1.11 created, 0.32 conceded against Kasımpaşa
L 0.67 created, 2.97 conceded against Beşiktaş

Eyüpspor

0.86 xG created 1.11 xGA

D 0.90 created, 1.46 conceded against Kayserispor
W 1.67 created, 0.75 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
D 0.52 created, 1.33 conceded against Fenerbahçe
L 0.09 created, 1.28 conceded against Beşiktaş
L 0.49 created, 1.16 conceded against Gaziantep FK
W 1.48 created, 0.66 conceded against Alanyaspor

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Çorum FK against Eyüpspor before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	1.90	+17.3%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+15.7%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.50	+9.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Çorum FK	47.5%	55.4%	−7.8 pp	2.10
Draw	32.1%	25.4%	+6.7 pp	3.11
Eyüpspor	20.3%	19.2%	+1.1 pp	4.92

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	48.0%	51.5%	−3.5 pp	2.08
Both teams not to score	52.0%	48.5%	+3.5 pp	1.92
Over 1.5 goals	68.9%	73.1%	−4.3 pp	1.45
Under 1.5 goals	31.1%	26.9%	+4.3 pp	3.21
Over 2.5 goals	38.3%	50.0%	−11.7 pp	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	61.7%	50.0%	+11.7 pp	1.62

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Çorum FK sample: 3 matches
Eyüpspor sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Warnings

Çorum FK has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.