Gençlerbirliği 1:2 Kasımpaşa: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 16:00

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Match report · Süper Lig

Gençlerbirliği Home 1.16 xG · 15 shots

Kasımpaşa Away 1.32 xG · 16 shots

12 The chances were evenly matched

A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 36%. Kasımpaşa won 2–1. The biggest difference was Kasımpaşa's attack: 1.32 xG against 0.92 projected (+0.40).

Goals

23' Ousmane Diabate Gençlerbirliği · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
79' Adrian Benedyczak Kasımpaşa · 0.10 xG chance 1–1
90' Güven Yalçın Kasımpaşa · 0.22 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Gençlerbirliği: 34%
Draw: 36%
Kasımpaşa: 29% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Gençlerbirliği 1.02 1.16 +0.14

Kasımpaşa 0.92 1.32 +0.40

Kasımpaşa produced 0.40 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Gençlerbirliği Kasımpaşa

Shots: 15; 16
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 12; 9
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.74; 0.56
Set-piece xG: 0.45; 0.67
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.15 for Gençlerbirliği and 1.21 for Kasımpaşa.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 2.42 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Gençlerbirliği
Kasımpaşa
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Gençlerbirliği

1.30 xG created 1.91 xGA

W 1.86 created, 1.98 conceded against Kasımpaşa
W 1.58 created, 0.57 conceded against Trabzonspor
W 1.19 created, 2.90 conceded against Fenerbahçe
W 1.56 created, 1.92 conceded against Göztepe
D 0.75 created, 0.86 conceded against Erzurumspor FK
L 0.86 created, 3.21 conceded against Trabzonspor

Kasımpaşa

1.26 xG created 1.04 xGA

L 1.98 created, 1.86 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
W 0.65 created, 0.55 conceded against Galatasaray
D 1.86 created, 0.85 conceded against Trabzonspor
W 0.32 created, 1.11 conceded against Çorum FK
D 1.69 created, 0.76 conceded against Başakşehir FK
D 1.04 created, 1.11 conceded against Amed Sportif Faaliyetler

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Gençlerbirliği: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Gençlerbirliği against Kasımpaşa before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 1.5 goals	3.25	+23.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.75	+21.7%	Lost
Draw	3.20	+15.8%	Lost
Gençlerbirliği not to score	3.40	+13.5%	Lost
Gençlerbirliği at most 1 goal	1.53	+12.0%	Won
Kasımpaşa at most 1 goal	1.36	+4.7%	Lost
Both teams not to score	1.83	+2.2%	Lost
Kasımpaşa not to score	2.75	+0.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Gençlerbirliği	34.5%	40.2%	−5.8 pp	2.90
Draw	36.2%	28.9%	+7.3 pp	2.76
Kasımpaşa	29.4%	30.8%	−1.5 pp	3.41

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Gençlerbirliği to score	66.6%	72.3%	−5.7 pp	1.50
Gençlerbirliği not to score	33.4%	27.7%	+5.7 pp	3.00
Kasımpaşa to score	63.3%	66.3%	−3.0 pp	1.58
Kasımpaşa not to score	36.7%	33.7%	+3.0 pp	2.73
Both teams to score	44.2%	50.0%	−5.8 pp	2.26
Both teams not to score	55.8%	50.0%	+5.8 pp	1.79
Gençlerbirliği 2+ goals	27.0%	39.2%	−12.3 pp	3.71
Gençlerbirliği at most 1 goal	73.0%	60.8%	+12.3 pp	1.37
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals	23.3%	31.3%	−8.0 pp	4.30
Kasımpaşa at most 1 goal	76.7%	68.7%	+8.0 pp	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	61.9%	70.9%	−9.0 pp	1.62
Under 1.5 goals	38.1%	29.1%	+9.0 pp	2.62
Over 2.5 goals	30.5%	46.1%	−15.6 pp	3.28
Under 2.5 goals	69.5%	53.9%	+15.6 pp	1.44

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Gençlerbirliği sample: 20 matches
Kasımpaşa sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.