AGF 2:2 Silkeborg IF: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

AGF Home 1.92 xG · 17 shots

Silkeborg IF Away 1.23 xG · 10 shots

22 AGF had the better chances, but it finished level

AGF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 64%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Silkeborg IF's attack: 1.23 xG against 0.88 projected (+0.35).

Goals

29' Rami Al Hajj (pen.) Silkeborg IF · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
39' Lucas Riisgaard Silkeborg IF · 0.08 xG chance 0–2
88' Janni Serra AGF · 0.08 xG chance 1–2
90' Janni Serra AGF · 0.16 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AGF: 64%
Draw: 24% What happened
Silkeborg IF: 13%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AGF 2.01 1.92 -0.09

Silkeborg IF 0.88 1.23 +0.35

Silkeborg IF produced 0.35 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AGF Silkeborg IF

Shots: 17; 10
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 14; 6
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.12
Open play xG: 1.59; 0.35
Set-piece xG: 0.48; 0.03
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.09 for AGF and 0.38 for Silkeborg IF.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 3.27 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

AGF
Silkeborg IF
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AGF

1.71 xG created 1.47 xGA

D 1.91 created, 0.81 conceded against Brøndby IF
D 1.35 created, 3.37 conceded against Lyngby
L 1.92 created, 1.03 conceded against Viborg FF
D 1.88 created, 0.81 conceded against Odense Boldklub
L 1.97 created, 1.10 conceded against Randers FC
L 1.21 created, 1.71 conceded against FC Midtjylland

Silkeborg IF

1.14 xG created 1.71 xGA

D 1.09 created, 0.60 conceded against Randers FC
L 1.52 created, 1.20 conceded against FC København
W 1.92 created, 1.14 conceded against Odense Boldklub
L 0.22 created, 2.70 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
L 0.99 created, 2.14 conceded against Brøndby IF
D 1.11 created, 2.50 conceded against FC Midtjylland

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AGF: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AGF against Silkeborg IF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.60	+12.1%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+6.8%	Lost
Draw	4.50	+6.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AGF	63.8%	62.7%	+1.0 pp	1.57
Draw	23.6%	20.9%	+2.7 pp	4.24
Silkeborg IF	12.6%	16.4%	−3.7 pp	7.91

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.8%	58.9%	−3.1 pp	1.79
Both teams not to score	44.2%	41.1%	+3.1 pp	2.26
Over 1.5 goals	82.2%	84.2%	−2.0 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	17.8%	15.8%	+2.0 pp	5.62
Over 2.5 goals	56.9%	63.8%	−6.9 pp	1.76
Under 2.5 goals	43.1%	36.2%	+6.9 pp	2.32

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AGF sample: 20 matches
Silkeborg IF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.