FC Argeș Pitești 1:1 FC Botoșani: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 14:00

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

FC Argeș Pitești Home 1.51 xG

FC Botoșani Away 1.19 xG

11 FC Argeș Pitești had the better chances, but it finished level

FC Argeș Pitești were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. It finished 1–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Argeș Pitești: 42%
Draw: 30% What happened
FC Botoșani: 28%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Argeș Pitești 1.52 1.51 -0.01

FC Botoșani 1.24 1.19 -0.05

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Argeș Pitești FC Botoșani

Shots: 8; 5
On target: 1; 3
Inside the box: 7; 3
xG per shot: 0.19; 0.24

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Argeș Pitești

1.02 xG created 1.10 xGA

W 0.50 created, 0.68 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
W 2.20 created, 0.00 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
W 0.92 created, 3.37 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
D 0.37 created, 1.05 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
L 1.16 created, 0.86 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
L 0.95 created, 0.65 conceded against Sepsi OSK

FC Botoșani

2.23 xG created 1.93 xGA

L 2.14 created, 3.14 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
D 1.96 created, 1.59 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
L 1.38 created, 2.37 conceded against FCSB
W 1.81 created, 1.01 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
D 2.32 created, 2.25 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
W 3.79 created, 1.19 conceded against Sepsi OSK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Argeș Pitești: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged4 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Argeș Pitești against FC Botoșani before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Argeș Pitești 2+ goals	2.50	+16.1%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.15	+15.4%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.83	+12.7%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.36	+9.7%	Won
FC Argeș Pitești to score	1.30	+5.1%	Won
FC Botoșani to score	1.40	+3.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Argeș Pitești	42.1%	38.5%	+3.7 pp	2.37
Draw	29.6%	30.1%	−0.5 pp	3.38
FC Botoșani	28.3%	31.4%	−3.2 pp	3.54

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Argeș Pitești to score	80.9%	72.3%	+8.5 pp	1.24
FC Argeș Pitești not to score	19.1%	27.7%	−8.5 pp	5.22
FC Botoșani to score	74.0%	66.3%	+7.7 pp	1.35
FC Botoșani not to score	26.0%	33.7%	−7.7 pp	3.84
Both teams to score	61.5%	50.0%	+11.5 pp	1.63
Both teams not to score	38.5%	50.0%	−11.5 pp	2.60
FC Argeș Pitești 2+ goals	46.4%	37.5%	+8.9 pp	2.15
FC Argeș Pitești at most 1 goal	53.6%	62.5%	−8.9 pp	1.87
FC Botoșani 2+ goals	35.8%	33.7%	+2.1 pp	2.79
FC Botoșani at most 1 goal	64.2%	66.3%	−2.1 pp	1.56
Over 1.5 goals	80.5%	68.7%	+11.7 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.5%	31.3%	−11.7 pp	5.12
Over 2.5 goals	53.7%	43.7%	+10.0 pp	1.86
Under 2.5 goals	46.3%	56.3%	−10.0 pp	2.16

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Argeș Pitești sample: 20 matches
FC Botoșani sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.