Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 15:00
Full timeFC Farul Constanța 0:0 FC Botoșani
FC Farul Constanța were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was FC Botoșani's attack: 2.32 xG against 1.22 projected (+1.10). FC Farul Constanța produced 2.25 xG against 1.82 projected (+0.43).
The model against the result
- FC Farul Constanța
- 50%
- Draw
- 27% What happened
- FC Botoșani
- 23%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Botoșani produced 1.10 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 14
- On target
- 6
- 1
- Inside the box
- 7
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.17
Recent form
1.49 xG created 1.35 xGA
- L 1.69 created, 0.95 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- W 2.29 created, 0.40 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- D 1.97 created, 4.29 conceded against FCSB
- W 1.21 created, 0.55 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- D 1.05 created, 0.37 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- D 0.72 created, 1.53 conceded against Sepsi OSK
1.94 xG created 2.07 xGA
- D 2.57 created, 2.88 conceded against FC Voluntari
- D 1.79 created, 1.45 conceded against FC Rapid București
- L 2.14 created, 3.14 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- D 1.96 created, 1.59 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- L 1.38 created, 2.37 conceded against FCSB
- W 1.81 created, 1.01 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | +27.0% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +9.9% | Lost |
| FC Farul Constanța to win | 1.83 | +3.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Farul Constanța | 50.2% | 49.5% | +0.7 pp | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26.8% | 25.9% | +0.9 pp | 3.72 |
| FC Botoșani | 22.9% | 24.5% | −1.6 pp | 4.36 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | 78.3% | +6.2 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.5% | 21.7% | −6.2 pp | 6.47 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.5% | 55.3% | +5.2 pp | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 44.7% | −5.2 pp | 2.53 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Farul Constanța sample
- 20 matches
- FC Botoșani sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.