Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 14:00
Full timeFC Petrolul Ploieşti 2:0 FC Corvinul Hunedoara
FC Petrolul Ploieşti were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was FC Petrolul Ploieşti's attack: 0.87 xG against 1.68 projected (−0.81).
The model against the result
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- 39% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- 33%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
FC Petrolul Ploieşti produced 0.81 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 20
- On target
- 3
- 7
- Inside the box
- 7
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.07
Recent form
1.30 xG created 2.19 xGA
- W 1.37 created, 1.84 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- L 0.68 created, 0.50 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- L 0.25 created, 4.14 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 2.23 created, 2.04 conceded against FC Voluntari
- L 1.26 created, 1.31 conceded against FC Rapid București
- W 2.02 created, 3.33 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
1.66 xG created 1.57 xGA
- L 0.40 created, 2.29 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
- D 1.90 created, 0.86 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- D 1.59 created, 1.96 conceded against FC Botoșani
- W 3.84 created, 1.17 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
- D 1.29 created, 1.35 conceded against UTA Arad
- D 0.91 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Dinamo București
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | +39.4% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +25.5% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | +18.7% | Won |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti to win | 2.63 | +3.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti | 39.4% | 34.1% | +5.4 pp | 2.53 |
| Draw | 27.2% | 30.8% | −3.6 pp | 3.67 |
| FC Corvinul Hunedoara | 33.3% | 35.1% | −1.8 pp | 3.00 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 69.7% | 51.5% | +18.3 pp | 1.43 |
| Both teams not to score | 30.3% | 48.5% | −18.3 pp | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.0% | 68.7% | +18.3 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.0% | 31.3% | −18.3 pp | 7.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | 43.7% | +21.2 pp | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.2% | 56.3% | −21.2 pp | 2.84 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti sample
- 20 matches
- FC Corvinul Hunedoara sample
- 6 matches
- Computed
- 22 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 23 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- FC Corvinul Hunedoara has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.