Monday, 31/08/2026 at 19:30
Full timeFC Rapid București 1:1 Universitatea Craiova
FC Rapid București were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Universitatea Craiova's attack: 1.95 xG against 1.23 projected (+0.72).
The model against the result
- FC Rapid București
- 36%
- Draw
- 32% What happened
- Universitatea Craiova
- 33%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Universitatea Craiova produced 0.72 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 21
- On target
- 6
- 6
- Inside the box
- 10
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.09
Recent form
1.72 xG created 1.18 xGA
- D 2.55 created, 1.62 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- W 2.25 created, 0.14 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- D 1.45 created, 1.79 conceded against FC Botoșani
- D 1.05 created, 0.84 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 1.72 created, 1.42 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- W 1.31 created, 1.26 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
2.70 xG created 1.21 xGA
- W 2.37 created, 0.53 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- L 1.08 created, 3.07 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- W 4.14 created, 0.25 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- L 3.37 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- D 0.65 created, 1.60 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- W 4.58 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Voluntari
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +4.9% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | +1.2% | Won |
| FC Rapid București to score | 1.33 | +0.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Rapid București | 35.6% | 34.3% | +1.4 pp | 2.81 |
| Draw | 31.6% | 29.0% | +2.6 pp | 3.17 |
| Universitatea Craiova | 32.8% | 36.7% | −3.9 pp | 3.05 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Rapid București to score | 75.1% | 70.9% | +4.2 pp | 1.33 |
| FC Rapid București not to score | 24.9% | 29.1% | −4.2 pp | 4.02 |
| Universitatea Craiova to score | 73.7% | 72.3% | +1.4 pp | 1.36 |
| Universitatea Craiova not to score | 26.3% | 27.7% | −1.4 pp | 3.80 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | 50.0% | +7.2 pp | 1.75 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.8% | 50.0% | −7.2 pp | 2.34 |
| FC Rapid București 2+ goals | 37.7% | 35.5% | +2.2 pp | 2.65 |
| FC Rapid București at most 1 goal | 62.3% | 64.5% | −2.2 pp | 1.60 |
| Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals | 35.5% | 37.5% | −2.0 pp | 2.82 |
| Universitatea Craiova at most 1 goal | 64.5% | 62.5% | +2.0 pp | 1.55 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | 70.9% | +5.0 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.0% | 29.1% | −5.0 pp | 4.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | 45.4% | +1.7 pp | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 54.6% | −1.7 pp | 1.89 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Rapid București sample
- 20 matches
- Universitatea Craiova sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.