Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 15:00
Full timeFK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc 2:3 CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was CFR 1907 Cluj's attack: 2.02 xG against 1.42 projected (+0.60). FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc produced 0.96 xG against 1.21 projected (−0.25).
The model against the result
- FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- 30%
- Draw
- 31%
- CFR 1907 Cluj
- 40% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
CFR 1907 Cluj produced 0.60 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 14
- On target
- 6
- 8
- Inside the box
- 6
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.14
Recent form
0.72 xG created 1.74 xGA
- W 1.18 created, 2.17 conceded against FC Botoșani
- L 0.26 created, 1.76 conceded against FCSB
- L 0.00 created, 2.20 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- L 0.55 created, 1.21 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
- D 1.34 created, 1.31 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- L 1.01 created, 1.81 conceded against FC Botoșani
1.40 xG created 1.77 xGA
- D 0.70 created, 0.08 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- D 1.29 created, 0.56 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- L 0.83 created, 3.24 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- W 2.88 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Voluntari
- L 1.17 created, 3.84 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- W 1.54 created, 1.74 conceded against FCSB
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc 2+ goals | 3.40 | +18.5% | Won |
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc to score | 1.50 | +9.8% | Won |
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc to win | 3.70 | +9.5% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +6.8% | Won |
| CFR 1907 Cluj at most 1 goal | 1.80 | +3.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.30 | +1.2% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +0.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc | 29.6% | 24.3% | +5.3 pp | 3.38 |
| Draw | 30.7% | 27.2% | +3.5 pp | 3.26 |
| CFR 1907 Cluj | 39.7% | 48.5% | −8.8 pp | 2.52 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc to score | 73.2% | 62.5% | +10.7 pp | 1.37 |
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc not to score | 26.8% | 37.5% | −10.7 pp | 3.73 |
| CFR 1907 Cluj to score | 78.6% | 78.3% | +0.3 pp | 1.27 |
| CFR 1907 Cluj not to score | 21.4% | 21.7% | −0.3 pp | 4.67 |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | 51.5% | +7.9 pp | 1.69 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.7% | 48.5% | −7.9 pp | 2.46 |
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc 2+ goals | 34.8% | 27.7% | +7.2 pp | 2.87 |
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc at most 1 goal | 65.2% | 72.3% | −7.2 pp | 1.53 |
| CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals | 42.6% | 48.5% | −5.9 pp | 2.35 |
| CFR 1907 Cluj at most 1 goal | 57.4% | 51.5% | +5.9 pp | 1.74 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | 73.1% | +5.1 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.8% | 26.9% | −5.1 pp | 4.59 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | 48.7% | +1.6 pp | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.8% | 51.3% | −1.6 pp | 2.01 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc sample
- 20 matches
- CFR 1907 Cluj sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.