FK Čukarički 1:1 FK Novi Pazar: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Čukarički Home 0.58 xG

FK Novi Pazar Away 0.60 xG

11 The chances were evenly matched

FK Čukarički were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was FK Čukarički's attack: 0.58 xG against 1.86 projected (−1.28). FK Novi Pazar produced 0.60 xG against 1.46 projected (−0.86).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Čukarički: 46%
Draw: 26% What happened
FK Novi Pazar: 28%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Čukarički 1.86 0.58 -1.28

FK Novi Pazar 1.46 0.60 -0.86

FK Čukarički produced 1.28 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Čukarički FK Novi Pazar

Shots: 10; 7
On target: 4; 3
Inside the box: 5; 3
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Čukarički

1.78 xG created 1.69 xGA

W 1.16 created, 1.63 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
W 2.37 created, 1.94 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
W 1.66 created, 0.57 conceded against OFK Beograd
L 1.02 created, 2.53 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
L 1.74 created, 1.84 conceded against FK Vojvodina
L 2.70 created, 1.63 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica

FK Novi Pazar

2.00 xG created 2.52 xGA

W 1.05 created, 1.88 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
L 2.45 created, 2.84 conceded against OFK Beograd
L 1.86 created, 2.67 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
W 2.85 created, 6.21 conceded against FK Vojvodina
L 1.17 created, 0.62 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
D 2.63 created, 0.92 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FK Čukarički: 0 won · 3 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Čukarički against FK Novi Pazar before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.85	+23.4%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.67	+17.1%	Won
FK Novi Pazar 2+ goals	2.63	+15.9%	Lost
FK Čukarički 2+ goals	2.00	+15.3%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+9.9%	Won
FK Čukarički to score	1.22	+6.1%	Won
FK Novi Pazar to score	1.33	+5.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Čukarički	45.9%	41.9%	+4.0 pp	2.18
Draw	26.2%	29.1%	−2.9 pp	3.82
FK Novi Pazar	27.9%	29.1%	−1.1 pp	3.58

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Čukarički to score	86.8%	76.6%	+10.2 pp	1.15
FK Čukarički not to score	13.2%	23.4%	−10.2 pp	7.57
FK Novi Pazar to score	79.4%	70.9%	+8.5 pp	1.26
FK Novi Pazar not to score	20.6%	29.1%	−8.5 pp	4.86
Both teams to score	70.2%	55.7%	+14.5 pp	1.42
Both teams not to score	29.8%	44.3%	−14.5 pp	3.36
FK Čukarički 2+ goals	57.7%	46.3%	+11.3 pp	1.73
FK Čukarički at most 1 goal	42.3%	53.7%	−11.3 pp	2.36
FK Novi Pazar 2+ goals	44.2%	35.5%	+8.7 pp	2.26
FK Novi Pazar at most 1 goal	55.8%	64.5%	−8.7 pp	1.79
Over 1.5 goals	88.0%	75.0%	+13.0 pp	1.14
Under 1.5 goals	12.0%	25.0%	−13.0 pp	8.30
Over 2.5 goals	66.7%	51.3%	+15.4 pp	1.50
Under 2.5 goals	33.3%	48.7%	−15.4 pp	3.00

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Čukarički sample: 20 matches
FK Novi Pazar sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.