Friday, 04/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeFK Novi Pazar 2:0 FK Železničar Pančevo
FK Novi Pazar were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 2–0.
The model against the result
- FK Novi Pazar
- 45% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- FK Železničar Pančevo
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
2.00 xG created 2.52 xGA
- W 1.05 created, 1.88 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
- L 2.45 created, 2.84 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 1.86 created, 2.67 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- W 2.85 created, 6.21 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- L 1.17 created, 0.62 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
- D 2.63 created, 0.92 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
1.00 xG created 1.30 xGA
- W 1.78 created, 0.51 conceded against OFK Beograd
- D 0.53 created, 0.48 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
- D 0.56 created, 1.12 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
- W 0.92 created, 1.05 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- D 1.87 created, 1.20 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
- L 0.33 created, 3.41 conceded against FK Vojvodina
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Novi Pazar to win | 3.40 | +52.6% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +10.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.50 | +1.8% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +0.8% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +0.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Novi Pazar | 44.9% | 27.2% | +17.6 pp | 2.23 |
| Draw | 29.1% | 26.5% | +2.6 pp | 3.44 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo | 26.0% | 46.3% | −20.3 pp | 3.84 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 51.5% | +9.7 pp | 1.63 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.8% | 48.5% | −9.7 pp | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | 75.0% | +5.7 pp | 1.24 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.3% | 25.0% | −5.7 pp | 5.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | 51.3% | +2.8 pp | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 48.7% | −2.8 pp | 2.18 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Novi Pazar sample
- 20 matches
- FK Železničar Pančevo sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.