Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:00
20d 15h to kick-offFK IMT Beograd – FK Železničar Pančevo
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK IMT Beograd
- 48%
- Draw
- 31%
- FK Železničar Pančevo
- 21%
| FK IMT Beograd | Draw | FK Železničar Pančevo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.08 | 3.25 | 4.72 |
- Total goals
- 2.41
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK IMT Beograd
48% FK IMT Beograd to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 3rd
- FK IMT Beograd attack v FK Železničar Pančevo defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 5th
- FK IMT Beograd defence v FK Železničar Pančevo attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.90 vs +0.63
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.47 – 0.94
- FK IMT Beograd v FK Železničar Pančevo
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK IMT Beograd | FK Železničar Pančevo |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.85 · 7th | (better) 2.13 · 5th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.13 · 2nd | 1.26 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | +0.72 · 6th | (better) +0.87 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.67 · 6th | (better) 1.78 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.90 | +0.63 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- FK IMT Beograd clean sheet
- 36%
- FK IMT Beograd 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 1:0
- 10.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK IMT Beograd sample
- 20 matches
- FK Železničar Pančevo sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK IMT Beograd
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Železničar Pančevo
- 1 match
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.