FK Železničar Pančevo 2:0 FK Mačva Šabac: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Železničar Pančevo Home 4.63 xG

FK Mačva Šabac Away 0.11 xG

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

FK Železničar Pančevo were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was FK Železničar Pančevo's attack: 4.63 xG against 1.59 projected (+3.04). FK Mačva Šabac produced 0.11 xG against 0.98 projected (−0.87).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Železničar Pančevo: 50% What happened
Draw: 29%
FK Mačva Šabac: 21%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Železničar Pančevo 1.59 4.63 +3.04

FK Mačva Šabac 0.98 0.11 -0.87

FK Železničar Pančevo produced 3.04 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Železničar Pančevo FK Mačva Šabac

Shots: 32; 4
On target: 12; 1
Inside the box: 21; 1
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.03

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Železničar Pančevo

1.00 xG created 1.30 xGA

W 1.78 created, 0.51 conceded against OFK Beograd
D 0.53 created, 0.48 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
D 0.56 created, 1.12 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
W 0.92 created, 1.05 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
D 1.87 created, 1.20 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
L 0.33 created, 3.41 conceded against FK Vojvodina

FK Mačva Šabac

0.75 xG created 2.30 xGA

L 0.01 created, 3.93 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
L 2.08 created, 2.22 conceded against FK Vojvodina
L 0.51 created, 0.88 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
W 0.78 created, 1.14 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
D 0.92 created, 2.63 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
D 0.22 created, 3.02 conceded against FK Radnički 1923

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Železničar Pančevo against FK Mačva Šabac before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FK Mačva Šabac to win	6.50	+33.6%	Lost
FK Mačva Šabac 2+ goals	5.00	+28.4%	Lost
Draw	4.20	+22.7%	Lost
FK Mačva Šabac to score	1.80	+17.6%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.10	+16.1%	Lost
FK Železničar Pančevo at most 1 goal	2.20	+13.2%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.05	+5.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Železničar Pančevo	50.2%	64.2%	−14.0 pp	1.99
Draw	29.2%	21.7%	+7.5 pp	3.42
FK Mačva Šabac	20.5%	14.0%	+6.5 pp	4.87

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Železničar Pančevo to score	82.0%	83.0%	−1.1 pp	1.22
FK Železničar Pančevo not to score	18.0%	17.0%	+1.1 pp	5.54
FK Mačva Šabac to score	65.3%	51.5%	+13.9 pp	1.53
FK Mačva Šabac not to score	34.7%	48.5%	−13.9 pp	2.89
Both teams to score	55.3%	44.3%	+11.0 pp	1.81
Both teams not to score	44.7%	55.7%	−11.0 pp	2.24
FK Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals	48.5%	57.7%	−9.1 pp	2.06
FK Železničar Pančevo at most 1 goal	51.5%	42.3%	+9.1 pp	1.94
FK Mačva Šabac 2+ goals	25.7%	18.6%	+7.1 pp	3.89
FK Mačva Šabac at most 1 goal	74.3%	81.4%	−7.1 pp	1.35
Over 1.5 goals	76.7%	76.6%	+0.1 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	23.3%	23.4%	−0.1 pp	4.30
Over 2.5 goals	48.5%	53.9%	−5.5 pp	2.06
Under 2.5 goals	51.5%	46.1%	+5.5 pp	1.94

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Železničar Pančevo sample: 20 matches
FK Mačva Šabac sample: 6 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FK Mačva Šabac has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.