Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 17:00
6d 17h to kick-offFK Mladost Lučani – OFK Beograd
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- FK Mladost Lučani
- 29%
- Draw
- 30%
- OFK Beograd
- 41%
| FK Mladost Lučani | Draw | OFK Beograd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.48 | 3.35 | 2.41 |
- Total goals
- 2.73
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 4 outcomes.
-
FK Mladost Lučani
- Model
- 28.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 36.3%
- Probability gap
- −7.6 pp
- Edge
- −26.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.48
- Market odds
- 2.55 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.66
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.1%
-
Draw
- Model
- 29.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 28.5%
- Probability gap
- +1.4 pp
- Edge
- −2.9%
- Fair odds
- 3.35
- Market odds
- 3.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.52
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.1%
-
OFK Beograd
- Model
- 41.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 35.2%
- Probability gap
- +6.2 pp
- Edge
- +8.7%
- Fair odds
- 2.41
- Market odds
- 2.63 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.54
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.1%
Outcomes with value
OFK Beograd to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
OFK Beograd to win
Model 41.4% vs. bookmaker 35.2%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans OFK Beograd
41% OFK Beograd to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 12th
- OFK Beograd attack v FK Mladost Lučani defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 14th
- OFK Beograd defence v FK Mladost Lučani attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.62 vs -0.79
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.24 – 1.50
- FK Mladost Lučani v OFK Beograd
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Mladost Lučani | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.08 · 12th | (better) 1.29 · 11th |
| xGA / match | 2.11 · 12th | (better) 2.09 · 11th |
| xGD / match | -1.03 · 12th | (better) -0.80 · 11th |
| xPts / match | 0.69 · 12th | (better) 0.86 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.79 | (better) -0.62 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- OFK Beograd clean sheet
- 26%
- OFK Beograd 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.0%
- 1:2
- 10.5%
- 2:1
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Mladost Lučani sample
- 20 matches
- OFK Beograd sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Mladost Lučani
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · OFK Beograd
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.