FK Mačva Šabac 1:2 FK Mladost Lučani: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Mačva Šabac Home 1.79 xG

FK Mladost Lučani Away 1.22 xG

12 The result went against the chances

FK Mačva Šabac were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. FK Mladost Lučani won 2–1. The biggest difference was FK Mačva Šabac's attack: 1.79 xG against 1.54 projected (+0.25).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Mačva Šabac: 40%
Draw: 29%
FK Mladost Lučani: 31% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Mačva Šabac 1.54 1.79 +0.25

FK Mladost Lučani 1.35 1.22 -0.13

FK Mačva Šabac produced 0.25 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Mačva Šabac FK Mladost Lučani

Shots: 14; 5
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 8; 4
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.24

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Mačva Šabac

0.77 xG created 2.42 xGA

L 2.08 created, 2.22 conceded against FK Vojvodina
L 0.51 created, 0.88 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
W 0.78 created, 1.14 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
D 0.92 created, 2.63 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
D 0.22 created, 3.02 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
L 0.11 created, 4.63 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo

FK Mladost Lučani

1.21 xG created 1.81 xGA

W 2.01 created, 1.47 conceded against FK Javor Ivanjica
W 1.03 created, 0.63 conceded against FK Napredak Kruševac
D 1.20 created, 1.87 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
W 1.40 created, 2.22 conceded against FK Partizan
W 1.11 created, 2.20 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
L 0.49 created, 2.49 conceded against FK Radnički 1923

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged6 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Mačva Šabac against FK Mladost Lučani before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FK Mačva Šabac 2+ goals	3.40	+59.8%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.40	+36.7%	Won
Both teams to score	2.10	+34.7%	Won
FK Mačva Šabac to score	1.50	+21.8%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.40	+15.5%	Won
FK Mačva Šabac to win	2.70	+7.7%	Lost
FK Mladost Lučani 2+ goals	2.63	+5.6%	Won
FK Mladost Lučani to score	1.36	+5.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Mačva Šabac	39.9%	34.4%	+5.5 pp	2.51
Draw	29.0%	29.9%	−0.9 pp	3.44
FK Mladost Lučani	31.1%	35.7%	−4.6 pp	3.22

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Mačva Šabac to score	81.2%	62.5%	+18.7 pp	1.23
FK Mačva Šabac not to score	18.8%	37.5%	−18.7 pp	5.32
FK Mladost Lučani to score	77.0%	68.7%	+8.2 pp	1.30
FK Mladost Lučani not to score	23.0%	31.3%	−8.2 pp	4.34
Both teams to score	64.1%	44.3%	+19.9 pp	1.56
Both teams not to score	35.9%	55.7%	−19.9 pp	2.79
FK Mačva Šabac 2+ goals	47.0%	27.7%	+19.3 pp	2.13
FK Mačva Šabac at most 1 goal	53.0%	72.3%	−19.3 pp	1.89
FK Mladost Lučani 2+ goals	40.2%	35.5%	+4.7 pp	2.49
FK Mladost Lučani at most 1 goal	59.8%	64.5%	−4.7 pp	1.67
Over 1.5 goals	82.5%	66.3%	+16.3 pp	1.21
Under 1.5 goals	17.5%	33.7%	−16.3 pp	5.72
Over 2.5 goals	57.0%	38.5%	+18.5 pp	1.76
Under 2.5 goals	43.0%	61.5%	−18.5 pp	2.32

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Mačva Šabac sample: 7 matches
FK Mladost Lučani sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

FK Mačva Šabac has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.