FK Novi Pazar 2:2 FK Zemun: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Novi Pazar Home 3.40 xG

FK Zemun Away 0.60 xG

22 FK Novi Pazar had the better chances, but it finished level

FK Novi Pazar were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 69%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was FK Novi Pazar's attack: 3.40 xG against 2.60 projected (+0.80). FK Zemun produced 0.60 xG against 1.13 projected (−0.53).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Novi Pazar: 69%
Draw: 19% What happened
FK Zemun: 12%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Novi Pazar 2.60 3.40 +0.80

FK Zemun 1.13 0.60 -0.53

FK Novi Pazar produced 0.80 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Novi Pazar FK Zemun

Shots: 19; 7
On target: 7; 4
Inside the box: 15; 4
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Novi Pazar

1.93 xG created 2.31 xGA

L 2.45 created, 2.84 conceded against OFK Beograd
L 1.86 created, 2.67 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
W 2.85 created, 6.21 conceded against FK Vojvodina
L 1.17 created, 0.62 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
D 2.63 created, 0.92 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
D 0.60 created, 0.58 conceded against FK Čukarički

FK Zemun

0.68 xG created 3.80 xGA

L 0.00 created, 3.98 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
L 0.53 created, 2.77 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
L 1.06 created, 4.05 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
L 1.52 created, 3.51 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
L 0.78 created, 4.89 conceded against FK Vojvodina
D 0.20 created, 3.62 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Novi Pazar against FK Zemun before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	2.00	+34.5%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.67	+23.8%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+9.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Novi Pazar	69.4%	66.5%	+2.9 pp	1.44
Draw	18.7%	20.4%	−1.7 pp	5.36
FK Zemun	11.9%	13.1%	−1.2 pp	8.38

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	67.2%	46.3%	+20.9 pp	1.49
Both teams not to score	32.8%	53.7%	−20.9 pp	3.05
Over 1.5 goals	91.4%	78.3%	+13.1 pp	1.09
Under 1.5 goals	8.6%	21.7%	−13.1 pp	11.69
Over 2.5 goals	74.3%	56.3%	+18.0 pp	1.35
Under 2.5 goals	25.7%	43.7%	−18.0 pp	3.89

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Novi Pazar sample: 20 matches
FK Zemun sample: 7 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FK Zemun has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.