Chornomorets Odesa 1:1 Obolon Kyiv: xG & match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 12:00

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Match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Chornomorets Odesa Home

Obolon Kyiv Away

Chornomorets Odesa were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 1–1.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Chornomorets Odesa: 38%
Draw: 34% What happened
Obolon Kyiv: 29%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Chornomorets Odesa

0.54 xG created 1.30 xGA

L 0.22 created, 1.12 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
W 1.01 created, 1.84 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
D 0.46 created, 0.34 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
L 0.46 created, 1.90 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk

Obolon Kyiv

0.86 xG created 2.20 xGA

W 2.29 created, 0.86 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
L 0.46 created, 1.17 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
L 0.46 created, 2.67 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
D 0.04 created, 3.27 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
D 1.48 created, 1.03 conceded against Kudrivka
L 0.42 created, 4.19 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Chornomorets Odesa sample: 4 matches
Obolon Kyiv sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Chornomorets Odesa has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.