Monday, 14/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timeShakhtar Donetsk 2:0 Chornomorets Odesa
Shakhtar Donetsk were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 60%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Chornomorets Odesa's attack: 0.46 xG against 0.74 projected (−0.28).
The model against the result
- Shakhtar Donetsk
- 60% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- Chornomorets Odesa
- 13%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Chornomorets Odesa produced 0.28 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 5
- On target
- 9
- 2
- Inside the box
- 9
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.09
Recent form
1.40 xG created 1.05 xGA
- W 0.54 created, 0.78 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- W 1.19 created, 1.20 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- W 2.80 created, 0.29 conceded against Kudrivka
- W 1.39 created, 0.47 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- W 0.88 created, 1.51 conceded against Metalist 1925
- W 1.58 created, 2.05 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
0.56 xG created 1.10 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged1 won8 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chornomorets Odesa to win | 17.00 | +119.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 7.00 | +88.4% | Lost |
| Shakhtar Donetsk at most 1 goal | 3.75 | +77.6% | Lost |
| Chornomorets Odesa to score | 2.63 | +44.4% | Lost |
| Shakhtar Donetsk not to score | 9.00 | +41.4% | Lost |
| Chornomorets Odesa 2+ goals | 8.50 | +36.4% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.75 | +31.9% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | +30.5% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.50 | +16.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 60.2% | 81.3% | −21.1 pp | 1.66 |
| Draw | 26.9% | 13.3% | +13.6 pp | 3.72 |
| Chornomorets Odesa | 12.9% | 5.5% | +7.4 pp | 7.76 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk to score | 84.3% | 89.6% | −5.3 pp | 1.19 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk not to score | 15.7% | 10.4% | +5.3 pp | 6.37 |
| Chornomorets Odesa to score | 55.0% | 35.5% | +19.5 pp | 1.82 |
| Chornomorets Odesa not to score | 45.0% | 64.5% | −19.5 pp | 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 33.7% | +14.2 pp | 2.08 |
| Both teams not to score | 52.0% | 66.3% | −14.2 pp | 1.92 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals | 52.6% | 75.0% | −22.4 pp | 1.90 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk at most 1 goal | 47.4% | 25.0% | +22.4 pp | 2.11 |
| Chornomorets Odesa 2+ goals | 16.0% | 11.0% | +5.1 pp | 6.23 |
| Chornomorets Odesa at most 1 goal | 84.0% | 89.0% | −5.1 pp | 1.19 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.2% | 79.4% | −5.2 pp | 1.35 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.8% | 20.6% | +5.2 pp | 3.87 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | 60.8% | −15.7 pp | 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 39.2% | +15.7 pp | 1.82 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Shakhtar Donetsk sample
- 20 matches
- Chornomorets Odesa sample
- 3 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Chornomorets Odesa has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.