Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:00
20d 13h to kick-offFC Epicentr Dunaivtsi – Metalist 1925
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- 19%
- Draw
- 29%
- Metalist 1925
- 52%
| FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi | Draw | Metalist 1925 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 5.39 | 3.39 | 1.92 |
- Total goals
- 2.46
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Metalist 1925
52% Metalist 1925 to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 12th
- Metalist 1925 attack v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 9th
- Metalist 1925 defence v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.17 vs +0.30
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.90 – 1.57
- FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi v Metalist 1925
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi | Metalist 1925 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.74 · 8th | (better) 2.42 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.17 · 6th | (better) 0.79 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | +0.57 · 6th | (better) +1.63 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.72 · 5th | (better) 2.23 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.30 | (better) +1.17 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- Metalist 1925 clean sheet
- 38%
- Metalist 1925 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.3%
- 1:2
- 11.3%
- 0:1
- 11.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi sample
- 20 matches
- Metalist 1925 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Metalist 1925
- 1 match
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.