Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 15:00
6d 15h to kick-offChornomorets Odesa – Metalist 1925
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Chornomorets Odesa
- 16%
- Draw
- 30%
- Metalist 1925
- 55%
| Chornomorets Odesa | Draw | Metalist 1925 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 6.30 | 3.39 | 1.83 |
- Total goals
- 2.33
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 48%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Metalist 1925
55% Metalist 1925 to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 11th
- Metalist 1925 attack v Chornomorets Odesa defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 13th
- Metalist 1925 defence v Chornomorets Odesa attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.17 vs -0.76
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 0.78 – 1.55
- Chornomorets Odesa v Metalist 1925
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Chornomorets Odesa | Metalist 1925 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.54 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 2.42 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.30 · 8th from 4 matches | (better) 0.79 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.76 · 12th from 4 matches | (better) +1.63 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.74 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) 2.23 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.76 from 4 matches | (better) +1.17 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 40% of the model's distribution.
- Metalist 1925 clean sheet
- 43%
- Metalist 1925 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 52%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.3%
- 0:1
- 12.8%
- 0:2
- 12.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Chornomorets Odesa sample
- 4 matches
- Metalist 1925 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Chornomorets Odesa
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Metalist 1925
- 1 match
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Warnings
- Chornomorets Odesa has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.